导弹命中精度的序贯截尾概率圆检验方法  

Sequential truncated probability circle test for hit accuracy of missile

作　　者：杨华波[1] 张士峰[1] YANG Huabo;ZHANG Shifeng(College of Aerospace Science and Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学空天科学学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2024年第2期62-69,共8页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金联合基金资助项目(U21B2028)。

摘　　要：针对圆概率偏差检验难以直接计算的问题,提出序贯截尾概率圆检验方法,以目标点为中心,绘制两个同心圆,其中小圆以内区域为接受域,大圆以外区域为拒绝域,中间区域为继续试验域,在此基础上定义了序贯检验的基本决策规则,给出了双方风险及平均试验次数计算模型,提出了两种不同的决策阈值优化计算模型,通过求解优化问题确定接受域及拒绝域半径。利用数值仿真分析了两种不同决策阈值计算方法下检验方案中的各类参数,其中以平均试验次数最小为优化目标的计算模型具有更好的工程实用性。For the calculation difficulty directly of the circular error probability test,a truncated sequential probability circle test method was proposed.Taking the target point as the center,two concentric circles were drawn,in which the area within the small circle was the acceptance domain,the area outside the big circle was the rejection domain,and the middle area was the continuing test domain.On this basis,the basic decision rules in sequential testing were defined,and a calculation model for the risk of both parties and the average number of experiments was provided.Two different decision threshold optimization calculation models were proposed,and the acceptance and rejection domain radii were determined by solving the optimization problem.The various parameters in the inspection scheme under two different decision threshold calculation methods were analyzed using numerical simulation.Among them,the calculation model with the minimum average number of experiments as the optimization objective has better engineering practicality.

关 键 词：命中精度 圆概率偏差 序贯截尾概率圆检验 研制方风险 使用方风险 平均试验次数 

分 类 号：O212.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]