基于空间计量模型的城市用地结构与空气质量关联性研究——以粤闽浙三省市县为例  

Study on the Correlation Relationship Between Land Use Structure and Air Quality Based on Spatial Econometric Models:A Case Study of Cities and Counties in Guangdong,Fujian and Zhejiang Provinces

作　　者：张虹 李超骕 曾献君 ZHANG Hong;LI Chaosu;ZENG Xianjun

机构地区：[1]福建理工大学建筑与城乡规划学院 [2]澳门城市大学创新设计学院,中国 [3]香港科技大学(广州) [4]香港科技大学公共政策学部,中国

出　　处：《现代城市研究》2024年第2期9-16,共8页Modern Urban Research

基　　金：2021年福建省自然科学基金一般项目“信息化生活场景对城市公共服务设施空间布局的影响与规划调控”(2021J011072);2019年度福建省社会科学规划青年项目“基于层次分析法的明清时期福建省海港城市人居环境空间比较研究”(FJ2019C009)。

摘　　要：文章以粤闽浙三省204个市县为例,利用探索性空间数据分析方法揭示空气质量指数(AQI)时空分布特征,应用空间计量模型探讨自然环境、社会经济和城市形态等因素对空气质量的影响。结果表明:(1)粤闽浙三省年空气质量指数在空间上呈现“北高南低”的特点,空气污染热点主要集中在浙江省北部、中部及东部沿海地区,空气质量较好的冷点主要在福建省东北部。(2)季节尺度上,AQI呈现“春冬高、夏秋低”的季节变化特征。(3)回归模型显示:城市用地结构越均衡越能显著改善空气质量;城市绿化覆盖率对空气质量改善作用不明显;城市化水平越高的市、县,空气质量越容易得到改善,且城市空气质量改善效应优于县城地区;第二产业生产总值占比、交通因子、建成区用地规模对空气质量产生消极影响;夏季高温将加剧空气污染;年最高温平均值、年降水总量、植被覆盖指数对空气质量有改善作用。The study,focusing on 204 cities and counties in Guangdong,Fujian,and Zhejiang provinces,utilizes exploratory spatial data analysis methods to reveal the temporal and spatial distribution of air quality index(AQI).A spatial econometrics model is applied to explore the impact of natural environments,socioeconomic factors,and urban form on air quality.Key fi ndings include:(1)A north-high and south-low spatial pattern in annual AQI,with pollution hotspots mainly in northern,central,and eastern coastal areas of Zhejiang,and cleaner air mainly in northeastern Fujian.(2)Seasonally,AQI is higher in spring and winter,lower in summer and autumn.(3)The regression model shows balanced urban land use improves air quality;urban green coverage has a negligible eff ect;higher urbanization levels correlate with better air quality,particularly in cities compared to towns;the proportion of secondary industry,traffi c factors,and built-up land use negatively impact air quality;high summer temperatures exacerbate pollution;annual maximum temperature average,annual precipitation,and vegetation coverage index improve air quality.

关 键 词：空气质量指数 时空特征 土地利用混合度 空间滞后模型(SLM) 市县空间 

分 类 号：TU984.1[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]