基于CMA-TRAMS模式地形高度偏差的地面气温误差订正方法研究  

Study on Surface Temperature Error Correction Method Based on the Terrain Height Deviation of CMA-TRAMS Model

作　　者：倪悦 冯业荣[2] 黄燕燕[2] 潘宁 NI Yue;FENG Yerong;HUANG Yanyan;PAN Ning(Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Fuzhou 350008;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,and Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,Guangzhou,China 510641;Longyan Meteorological Office of Fujuan Province,Longyan 364000;Fujuan Meteorological Observatory,Fuzhou 350008)

机构地区：[1]福建省灾害天气重点实验室,福建福州350008 [2]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广东广州510641 [3]龙岩市气象局,福建龙岩364000 [4]福建省气象台,福建福州350008

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2024年第1期1-10,共10页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506902);国家自然科学基金项目(U1811464、41705089);泛珠三角区资助项目区域数值预报联合发展专项(PPRD202104)共同资助。

摘　　要：采用一元线性方法建立南海台风模式CMA-TRAMS地形高度偏差和地面气温预报误差的回归关系,分别开展不分级、高度偏差分级和地面气温误差分级的三种订正方法的研究,并进行订正效果评估。结果表明,模式地面气温预报误差与地形高度偏差总体呈负的线性相关关系,地面气温预报绝对误差随地形高度偏差绝对值增大而增大(对模式地形高度偏低站点尤为明显),但不同时刻地面气温预报误差特征表现不同,模式对地形高度偏高(即模式地形高于测站高度)和地形高度偏差小于50m的站点,06时地面气温(世界时,下同)预报总体偏低,对地形高度偏低大于50m的站点(即模式地形低于测站高度),06时地面气温预报总体偏高;而无论站点地形高度偏差如何,模式对18时地面气温预报总体偏高。三种订正方法中地面气温误差分级法能有效地减小地面气温预报误差,该方法订正后的分析场准确率可达96%~99%,12~48小时时效预报场准确率总体可提升至90%以上,该方法具有回归关系稳定、效果显著、适用性广、简单易行等特点。Based on the regression relationship between the terrain height deviation of CMA-TRAMS(China Meteorological Administration-Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling for South China Sea)and the surface temperature error,a unitary linear regression method is utilized to evaluate three correction methods in this study,including non-grading,height deviation grading and temperature error grading,respectively,and the correction effect was evaluated.It is demonstrated that a negative linear correlation can be found between the surface temperature prediction error and the terrain height deviation,the absolute error of surface temperature forecast increases with the increase of the absolute value of terrain height deviation(especially obvious for sites with lower terrain height).but the error characteristics of surface temperature at different times are different,the stations with higher terrain height and the terrain height deviation is less than 50 m in the model usually have lower surface temperature forecast at 06:00,and vice versa.However,the prediction of surface temperature at 18:00 is generally higher,regardless of the terrain height deviation.The temperature error grading correction method of the three correction methods has the best performance in effectively reducing the error of surface temperature forecast,the accuracy rate of the temperature prediction of analysis field is 96%—99%,and 12—48 h forecast field is generally improved to above 90%.The temperature error grading correction method has the characteristics of stable regression relationship,obvious effect,wide applicability and easy operation.

关 键 词：南海台风模式CMA-TRAMS 模式地形高度偏差 地面气温 误差分级订正 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]