基于证据理论的机场应急预案评价研究  

Evaluation of airport emergency plans based on evidence theory

作　　者：齐晓云[1] 崔琼心 QI Xiaoyun;CUI Qiongxin(College of Humanities,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学经济与管理学院,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2024年第4期45-49,共5页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：天津市教委科研计划项目(2018SK147)。

摘　　要：为解决应急预案评价中不确定性带来的影响,提出一种基于证据理论的机场应急预案评价方法。首先,基于全过程视角构建机场应急预案评价指标体系;然后,基于证据理论建立机场应急预案评价模型,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,将专家模糊评语转化为Mass函数,利用改进证据理论对Mass函数进行修正并合成;最后,结合各指标权重进行综合评价确定评价等级。将该方法成功运用于深圳宝安机场应急预案评价,验证了其有效性和可行性。In order to solve the influence of uncertainty of emergency plan evaluation,the paper proposes an evaluation method of airport emergency plans based on evidence theory.Firstly,the airport emergency plans index system is constructed based on the process of events.Secondly,based on the evidence theory,the airport emergency plans evaluation model was developed.Applying the AHP to determine the index weight,the experts comment for the index is turned into the mass function,and the mass function is modified and synthesized by using the improved evidence theory.Finally,the evaluation is determined by combining the index weights for comprehensive evaluation grade.The method is successfully applied to the evaluation of emergency plans of Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport,so as to verify the validity and feasible of the method.

关 键 词：应急预案 证据理论 指标体系 预案评价 

分 类 号：V35[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]