车辆轨迹数据驱动的急弯路段追尾冲突风险时空演化规律  

Spatial andtemporal evolution of rear-end conflict risk at sharp curves using vehicle trajectory data

作　　者：王永岗[1,2] 李晓坤 宋杰 李德林 WANG Yonggang;LI Xiaokun;SONG Jie;LI Delin(School of Transportation Engineering,Chang′an University,Xi′an 710018,China;Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Management,Control and Cycle Repair Technology for Traffic Network Facilities in Ecological Security Barrier Area(Chang′an University),Xi′an 710018,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学运输工程学院,西安710018 [2]生态安全屏障区交通网设施管控及循环修复技术交通运输行业重点实验室(长安大学),西安710018

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2024年第3期38-45,共8页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2019YFB1600500)。

摘　　要：为有效揭示急弯路段上车辆间追尾冲突风险的形成与变化态势,选取典型事故多发急弯路段使用无人机航拍等方式采集交通流数据,利用Tracker软件提取车辆轨迹信息,构建急弯路段追尾冲突后侵入时间PET判别指标,结合冲突先导车LV与跟随车FV的速度、加速度变化划分追尾冲突模式,进而界定临界冲突点、冲突风险范围及PET变化率指标DPET,运用回归分析量化LV与FV的速度、加速度、速度差及加速度差对DPET的影响,阐明临界冲突点及主要追尾冲突模式的微观变化特性及时空演化规律。结果表明:车辆追尾冲突存在空间集聚性,主要集中在入弯缓和曲线上游、曲中标志断面下游及出弯缓和曲线下游;在潜在追尾冲突的九大类别中发生频率最高的四大类冲突数量占比高达83.24%;PET在冲突临界点和冲突风险范围内均下降,导致DPET均为负值,在冲突临界点PET快速下降,其下降程度显著大于冲突风险范围;FV速度、加速度及LV、FV间速度差、加速度差四个指标显著影响追尾冲突临界点的DPET变化;T10模式(LV减速、FV加速)冲突过程中的DPET均值最小,PET序列下降最为剧烈,危险性显著高于其他冲突模式。In order to reveal the formation and change of rear-end collision risk between the lead and following vehicles on sharp curves effectively,a typical accident-prone sharp curved segment is selected to collect traffic flow data by vertical aerial photography from unmanned aerial vehicles.Vehicle trajectory information is extracted via Tracker to determine the post-encroachment time(PET)variable of rear-end conflict cross the sharp curve.The results show that there is a spatial clustering feature in rear-end conflicts,which mainly concentrate in the upstream of the entry transition curve and the downstream of the circular and exit transition curves.Four types of rear-end conflicts make up 83.24%of all types of conflicts,and PET decreases both at threshold moment and within conflict risk range with the former is even more so than the latter,resulting in declines of DPET(derivative of PET)values.Also,four indicators as speed of FV,acceleration,difference in speed and acceleration between LV and FV have a significant impact on the DPET change at the threshold moment of rear-end conflicts.The mean value of DPET during the conflict evolution process of T10(LV decelerates and FV accelerates)is the smallest with the PET sequence declines most sharply,which shows a significantly higher risk than other conflict modes.

关 键 词：急弯路段 追尾冲突风险 时空演化 后侵入时间PET DPET 车辆轨迹 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]