北京市居民生活用水规律解析与极值预测  

Evolution Analysis and Prediction of Peak Value for Residential Water Consumption in Beijing

作　　者：师林蕊 王丽珍[1,2] 李海红 朱永楠[1] 赵勇[1] 王建华[1] 詹力炜[1] 曲军霖 SHI Linrui;WANG Lizhen;LI Haihong;ZHU Yongnan;ZHAO Yong;WANG Jianhua;ZHAN Liwei;QU Junlin(State Key Laboratory of Stimulation and Regulation of Water Cycles in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;School of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering,Qinghai University,Xining810016,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]青海大学土木水利学院,青海西宁810016

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2024年第2期461-478,共18页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200204);国家杰出青年科学基金项目(52025093);国家自然科学基金项目(52009141)。

摘　　要：居民生活用水需求是城市供水的刚性保障,其用水发展趋势及增长规律事关城镇供水管理的宏观决策.根据历史数据分析北京市居民生活用水量演变规律和成因,研究表明影响居民生活用水量的关键因素是器具设施水平、行为习惯和收入水平,通过对关键因素与用水量的定量化分析和情景模拟,预测未来居民生活用水定额极值、时点条件和节水潜力.结果表明,现状节水条件下,居民收入水平增长至15 000元/月时,生活用水习惯将达到相对稳定状态,用水需求增长至极值,约为168L/人·d.节水政策干预条件下,技术和意识节水潜力达到极限时,居民生活用水量分别为123L/人·d和156L/人·d,节水效率分别为27%和7%.在最可能的节水发展情景中,2050年用水量为143L/人·d左右,节水效率约为15%.通过对北京市居民生活用水量和节水潜力分析,提出了控制居民用水需求快速增长的措施建议,为城市节约用水管理提供理论基础.Residential water demand is the rigid guarantee of water supply system,which related to the macroscopic decision for urban water supply management.Based on the historical data,the evolution of Beijing residential water consumption was analyzed in this study,the results indicate that the key factors affecting residential water demand were the facilities level,water use habits and income.Meanwhile,peak value and time point for water demand were predicted,through quantitative analysis and scenario simulation of the key factors.It is assumed that if household's water conservation maintains the current condition,habits and behaviors regarding water use will reach a relatively stable state,when per capita disposable income increases to 15000 yuan per month.As consequence,residential water demand will increase to peak value,which about 168 liters per person day.However,under the intervention of water conservation policies,residential water consumption will be 123 liters per person day and 156 liters per person day,while the technical and conscious playing the best roles in water saving.In the scenario that most likely development for water conservation condition,residential water consumption in 2050 will be 143 liters per person day,and water-saving efficiency will be 15%.Based on the analysis of water consumption and water-saving potential,some suggestions were put forward to control the rapid growth of residential water demand in Beijing.

关 键 词：居民生活 水量演变规律 用水极值 节水潜力 技术和意识节水 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]