Can We Estimate the Impacts of Fixed Links Using Current Transport Models?Experiences from Concept Evaluations of Fixed Links on E39  

作　　者：Trude Tørset 

机构地区：[1]Department of Civil and Transport Engineering Norwegian University of Science and Technology 7491 Trondheim,Norway

出　　处：《Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering》2024年第2期92-106,共15页交通与运输工程（英文版）

摘　　要：Transport analysis and impact evaluations are important input for decisions about infrastructure projects.The impacts on transport from fjord crossing tunnels or bridges are the foundation for the cost benefit analysis,and also the basis for estimating the income from toll collection.Based on experiences from concept evaluations of several fixed link projects on E39,and an ongoing overall analysis,we question the results from transport analysis made by the official tools for such analysis:the RTM(regional transport model)which estimates the demand for trips below 10 km,the NTM(national transport model),for trips of 10 km or more,and the freight transport model.Both the NTM and the freight transport model are integrated in the RTM in the net assignment stage.We will demonstrate strengths and weaknesses in the transport models by showing contra intuitive or questionable results using the model as it is.The following questions arose as the initial results from the transport model were presented:Are the transport models able to capture immediate as well as long-term impacts?How would different assumptions about the monetary costs on these projects affect the forecasted demand and the cost benefit analysis?Are there other and wider ranges of impacts,if the analysis covers the total coastal highway as a whole,compared to evaluating impacts of each fixed link project individually?Do we have enough data to include transport effects of wider impacts of the fixed link projects?We had to deal with these questions in the concept evaluations carried out for the various fixed links project and in the current overall evaluation.We would like to suggest improvements in the analysis tools and emphasize requirements for knowledge about impacts of fixed links projects.

关 键 词：Transport models transport analysis evaluation 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]