人口老龄化、公共教育投资与经济增长  

Population Aging,Public Education Investment and Economic Growth

作　　者：赵春燕 张佩媛 李亚波 夏霖 Zhao Chunyan;Zhang Peiyuan;Li Yabo;Xia Lin(School of Economics,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学经济学院,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2024年第1期92-110,共19页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：云南省科技厅科技计划项目青年项目“云南省老年人需求影响养老服务业发展的内在机制研究——基于微观和宏观的实证分析(202101AU070104)”的资助。

摘　　要：本文通过构建一个包含“统账结合”养老模式及公共教育政策的三期世代交迭模型,解释当前中国现行的养老、教育模式下家庭的储蓄决策、教育决策是如何变化以及经济增长是如何被决定的。研究结果显示:预期寿命的延长导致微观家庭理性行为人提高储蓄率,降低子女教育投资率,家庭储蓄率的提高挤出教育投资,导致宏观经济增长率出现下滑趋势。针对这一结果,从两个方面进行政策改革:一是降低统筹账户的缴纳比例,这会提高微观家庭的储蓄率,但对教育投资率的影响较小,经济增长效应甚微;二是加大公共教育投资力度,这会促进人力资本积累,经济增长效应明显。This article explains how household savings decisions and education decisions in China's current pension and education models are changing,as well as how economic growth is determined,by constructing a three period overlapping model that includes a“unified account combination”pension model and public education policies.The research results show that the extension of life expectancy leads to rational behavior in micro households increasing the savings rate,reducing the investment rate in children's education,and the increase in household savings rate squeezes out education investment,leading to a downward trend in macroeconomic growth rate.In response to this result,policy reforms will be carried out from two aspects:firstly,by reducing the proportion of contributions to the overall account,the savings rate of micro households has been increased,but the change in education investment rate is not significant,and the economic growth effect is not significant.Secondly,by increasing public education investment,the accumulation of human capital is promoted,and the economic growth effect is obvious.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 教育投资率 挤出效应 公共教育投资 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]