数字经济发展何以释放居民的消费潜力?  

How does the Development of the Digital Economy Release the Consumption Potential of Residents?

作　　者：黄漫宇[1] 窦雪萌 Huang Manyu;Dou Xuemeng(School of Business and Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Hubei Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第1期79-93,共15页Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘双循环’新格局下现代流通体系创新及高质量发展路径研究”(21&ZD120);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“数字化赋能全国统一大市场形成的机制、效应与路径研究”(2722023DD010);2023年部部省共建项目“扩大内需战略目标下提振居民消费的税收政策优化研究”。

摘　　要：数字经济在为我国经济高质量发展注入新动能的同时,也对居民消费潜力的释放产生重大影响。通过构建测算居民消费潜力的指标体系,使用2008-2020年31个省份的面板数据,检验了数字经济发展对居民消费潜力的影响。研究发现:第一,数字经济发展有利于释放居民的消费潜力,这一促进作用对高收入、受教育程度高及东部地区居民的影响更为显著。第二,数字经济发展存在两种效应:一种是通过提升收入水平和推动消费方式革新促进居民消费潜力释放,即数字红利效应;另一种是通过扩大数字鸿沟阻碍居民消费潜力释放,即数字鸿沟效应。第三,数字经济发展对居民消费潜力的影响存在基于收入结构和教育经费的单一门槛效应。研究结论为制定相关政策以引导数字经济促进消费潜力释放、缓解数字鸿沟效应提供了重要参考。Against the backdrop of accelerating the construction of new development paradigm of“dual circulation”,how to fully leverage the advantages of supersized market scale and effectively expand domestic demand has become a key issue at present.At the same time,the digital economy is having a profound impact on promoting consumption improvement and expansion.Therefore,studying the impact of the digital economy development on releasing the consumption potential of residents and its mechanism is of great significance for boosting consumption,enhancing the fundamental role of consumption in economic growth,and promoting high-quality economic development.This paper first defines the connotation of consumption potential based on the“guarantee theory”,and believes that it refers to the potential consumption demand hidden in consumers that has not yet been released.It is a comprehensive reflection of the consumption demand that residents have already shown and that needs to be guided and created.Its size is mainly affected by the residents'own consumption level and ability,as well as the external consumption environment.Then,this paper searches for the influencing factors that support and guarantee consumption potential from both the demand and supply sides,and constructs an evaluation system of residents'consumption potential indicators that includes four dimensions:monetary payment ability,consumption cognitive ability,current consumption expenditure,and consumption environment.Using panel data from 31 provinces from 2008 to2020,it examines the impact and mechanism of the digital economy development on the consumption potential of residents.The study finds that:First,the development of the digital economy is conducive to releasing the consumption potential of residents,and this promoting effect has a more significant impact on high-income,highly-educated,and eastern residents.Second,there are two effects in the development of the digital economy:One is the digital dividend effect,which promotes the release of resid

关 键 词：居民消费潜力 数字经济发展 数字红利效应 数字鸿沟效应 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] F49