复合型灾害中公众多重应对行为特征与影响因素研究  

Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Individuals'Coping Behaviors in Compound Disasters

作　　者：石佳[1] 郭紫楠 胡向南 Jia Shi;Zinan Guo;Xiangnan Hu

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院 [2]陕西师范大学国家安全学院(政法与公共管理学院)

出　　处：《公共行政评论》2024年第2期26-44,M0003,M0004,共21页Journal of Public Administration

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“城市民生公共政策社会风险评估的多元主体参与研究”(72104193);国家自然科学基金面上项目“面向级联效应的非程序化公共决策风险协同评估:基于情景驱动的研究”(72274151)。

摘　　要：伴随着快速的工业化、城市化、全球化,现代灾害风险正日益呈现鲜明的复合型特征。复合型灾害充斥着不确定性、紧急性与威胁性,使灾害来临时的个体应对行为实施面临着信息冲击更为混乱、决策时间更短、风险程度更高等严峻挑战。灾害情境的变化给传统灾害风险与应急管理模式带来了冲击,也对公众的多重应对能力提出了新要求。研究从2022年9月四川省部分地区居民经受突发公共卫生事件、地震自然灾害的复合型灾害场景出发,通过案例分析和结构方程模型的方法,对复合型灾害中公众多重应对行为的特征及影响因素展开探索。研究结果表明,科学的个体权衡和信息环境等因素显著影响公众的多重应对行为效能,公众在复合型灾害应对中能否做出有效的多重应对行为,是增强社会防范和应对处置灾害事故能力、提高自救、互救能力的关键。据此,应将风险情境变动特征纳入灾害宣教体系,加强灾变情境下信息整合与资源配备能力建设,同时积极制定复合型灾害应急预案并展开应急演练。研究为提高全社会抵御复合型灾害能力、筑牢防灾减灾救灾人民防线提供了有益启示。Industrialization,urbanization,and globalization have made modern disaster risks increasingly complex and diverse.Compound disasters,given their uncertainty and immediacy,pose significant challenges to individuals'coping behaviors.This includes managing information overload,making timely decisions,and facing elevated levels of risk.The changing nature of disaster scenarios not only affects traditional models of disaster risk and emergency management but also places new demands on the public's ability to respond effectively.This study specifically examined two compound disasters that occurred in Sichuan Province during the summer of 2022,a sudden public health emergency and an earthquake.Applying the Structural Equation Model,the study investigated the characteristics and influencing factors of individuals'multiple coping behaviors in the context of compound disasters.The results indicate that individual trade-offs and information environments significantly influenced the public's efficiency in implementing multiple coping behaviors.The public's capacity to engage in effective coping behaviors was crucial for strengthening social prevention and response capabilities,as well as enhancing self-help and mutual assistance abilities.As this paper suggests,integrating the changing characteristics of risk scenarios into the disaster education system will enhance the capacity to integrate information and allocate resources in disaster situations.Additionally,the paper recommends actively developing comprehensive emergency plans for compound disasters and conducting emergency drlls.These exercises will create valuable insights for enhancing society's ability to withstand compound disasters and fortifying the defense line for disaster prevention,mitigation,and relief efforts.

关 键 词：复合型灾害 多重应对行为 保护动机理论 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]