危机情境、危机回应策略与政府回应有效性——基于40个案例的定性比较分析  

Crisis Situation,Crisis Response Strategies,and Government Response Effectiveness:Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 40 Cases

作　　者：李红霞 郑石明 要蓉蓉 Hongxia Li;Shiming Zheng;Rongrong Yao

机构地区：[1]佛山开放大学 [2]暨南大学公共管理学院/应急管理学院 [3]华南理工大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《公共行政评论》2024年第2期45-63,M0004,共20页Journal of Public Administration

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“‘双碳’目标下环境污染与碳排放协同治理效应与机制创新研究”(22AGL029);国家社会科学基金一般项目“扎实推动共同富裕背景下农村新型集体经济的分配效应及其调控研究”(22BJY231)。

摘　　要：危机频发逐渐成为社会常态,政府采取有效的危机回应策略对于提升其危机应对能力至关重要。然而,在过去的危机事件中,为何有的政府回应成功化解危机,而有的却“适得其反”?基于情境危机沟通理论(SCCT),论文以2015-2022年间40个政府通报引发次生舆情的危机事件为研究对象,应用定性比较分析方法,从危机情境(危机初始责任、强化要素、回应时机)和危机回应策略(指示性信息、否认、淡化、重建)7个条件因素出发,分析影响政府回应有效性的联动因素和作用路径,并通过案例回溯进行深度解读。研究发现:(1)危机情境、危机回应策略都不能单独作为政府回应失效的必要条件,单一要素并不构成限制政府危机治理能力的瓶颈;(2)二者联动导致政府回应失效的路径可概括为SCCT匹配系统不一致型、一致型两类,前者主要由危机回应策略与危机情境不匹配引致,后者则由回应程度、信息公开、措辞表达、情绪诉求、回应时机等其他方面不利因素引致;(3)基于案例回溯分析,不同策略引致政府回应效果“适得其反”的概率由大到小为:否认策略、淡化策略、重建策略、支持策略,相较于支持策略和重建策略,政府使用否认策略和淡化策略的失效风险相对更高。研究发现可丰富与补充SCCT和形象修复理论,并为政府危机应对、政府形象管理或危机公关等提供实践启示。Frequent crises have become the norm in society so more effective response strategies must be added to government capabilities.This study investigated why some governments successfully resolved a crisis while others efforts"backfired."Guided by Situational Crisis Communication Theory(SCCT),this study collected 40 crisis cases that caused secondary network public opinion crises during the period 2015-2022.Seven conditional factors were coded at two levels:crisis situation(i.e.,initial responsibility of the crisis,intensifying factors,response timing)and crisis response strategy(i.e.,instructing information,denial,diminishment,rebuilding).Qualitative comparative analysis(QCA)revealed the impact paths of effective government responses because the QCA results allowed a more in-depth interpretation through a retrospective analysis of the crisis events.The study found that:(1)neither the crisis situation nor the crisis response strategies alone can be regarded as a necessary condition for the failure of the governments'responses.And neither factor will be a bottleneck limiting the governments'crisis response capabilities.(2)The paths leading to a failed response can be divided into two types:the SCCT interpretable type and the SCCT uninterpretable type.The former relates to the mismatch between crisis response strategies and crisis situations.The latter involves the existence of many unfavorable factors related to the degree of response,information disclosure,discourse rhetoric,emotional appeal,and response timing.(3)Based on the study's case retrospective analysis,the probability of different strategies leading to the failure of the government crisis response is as follows:denial,diminishment,bolstering,and rebuilding.Compared with the bolstering and rebuilding strategies,the denial and diminishment strategies have a relatively higher risk of failure.These research findings enrich and supplement SCCT and image repair theory,and provide practical insights for government crisis response,government image restoration,and

关 键 词：危机情境 危机回应策略 次生舆情 政府回应 定性比较分析 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]