精准扶贫与农村劳动力流动:政策效应与作用机制  

Targeted Poverty Alleviation and Rural Labor Mobility:Policy Treatment Effects and Mechanisms

作　　者：朱平芳[1] 方顺超 ZHU Pingfang;FANG Shunchao

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院数量经济研究中心,上海200235

出　　处：《学术月刊》2024年第3期70-83,共14页Academic Monthly

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“数字经济促进现代化产业体系建设的测度研究”(23BTJ015);上海市科技发展基金资助软科学研究基地--上海市科技统计与分析研究中心项目;国家自然科学基金项目“偏线性分位数样本截取和选择模型的估计与应用-基于非参数筛分法(Sieve Method)”(72273091);国家自然科学基金项目“引入专家咨询信息的多指标综合评价模型:理论、方法与应用”(72303155)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：推进脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴有效衔接的关键在于能否保障农村劳动力的自由流动。在理论分析家庭劳动力流动内在机理的基础上,可以构建多时点双重差分模型,通过排除户籍迁移群体的干扰以系统考察精准扶贫政策对于农村劳动力流动的影响。研究发现:精准扶贫能显著提高农村家庭劳动力的外出务工比例,并主要体现促进其在同区县内的流动。通过对精准扶贫瞄准性和作用路径的分析发现:对于低人力资本家庭,精准扶贫通过公共服务和转移就业政策可增加非农就业机会,达到促进家庭劳动力的流动;对于从事农业生产的家庭,精准扶贫通过基础设施和农业发展政策可促进农户扩大生产,但囿于现阶段的农业技术水平,农业生产条件的改善会为劳动力流动提供物质支持;对无劳动能力成员占比高的家庭,精准扶贫通过公共服务和生活保障政策来降低家庭在医疗和教育上的支出,以缓解家庭因素对劳动力流动形成的隐性约束。研究表明,劳动力流动更能准确地评估精准扶贫带来的可持续效应,对于促进脱贫地区衔接推进全面乡村振兴具有现实意义。The key to effectively connecting Targeted Poverty Alleviation(TPA)and rural revitalization lies in ensuring the free flowing of rural labor.Building on a theoretical analysis of the inherent mechanisms of household labor mobility,this paper constructs a time-varying DID model to systematically examine the impact of TPA on rural labor mobility,eliminating interference from the population migrating based on household registration.The study reveals that TPA significantly boosts the proportion of rural households engaged in off-farm work,with a primary focus on promoting mobility within the same county.An analysis of the precision targeting and impact pathways demonstrates the following:for households with low human capital,TPA increases non-agricultural employment opportunities through public services and employment transfer policies,thereby promoting household labor mobility;for households involved in agricultural production,TPA stimulates farmers to expand production through infrastructure and agricultural development policies.However,constrained by the current level of agricultural technology,improvements in agricultural production conditions provide material support for labor mobility;for households with a high proportion of members lacking labor capacity,TPA reduces household spending on healthcare and education through public services and social safety net policies,mitigating the hidden constraints on labor mobility arising from household factors.This paper contends that labor mobility provides a more accurate assessment of the sustainable effects of TPA,offering practical significance for promoting the seamless integration of poverty-stricken areas into comprehensive rural revitalization.

关 键 词：精准扶贫 乡村振兴 劳动力流动 多时点DID 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]