影响油气投资项目经济评价符合度的原因分析及对策建议  

Reasons affecting the conformance of economic evaluation of oil and gas investment projects and its suggestions

作　　者：郝春联 郭福军 陈镝 HAO Chunlian;GUO Fujun;CHEN Di(Economics and Technology Research Institute of PetroChina Liaohe Oilfield Company)

机构地区：[1]中国石油辽河油田经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第2期92-97,共6页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：一部分油气投资项目未达到前期评价的预期,与前期评价结果存在较大的差异。方案设计是经济评价的主要依据,是影响经济评价符合度的首要因素;方案设计只有得到有效执行,投资收益才有可能达到前期经济评价预期;评价业务不精、成果审查不严,可能导致经济评价误差;较长的评价期意味着较强的不确定性;对于效益的重视不够,导致经济评价结果失真;经济评价与财务评价有较大差别,分析角度不同可能产生认识偏差。为提高经济评价符合度,要做精做细前期可行性研究方案设计,加强经济评价体系的建设,加强经济评价能力建设,强化领导干部在经济评价工作中的作用。Some oil and gas investment projects did not meet the expectations of the preliminary evaluation with the significant discrepancies.Program design is the main basis for economic evaluation,and is the primary factor affecting the degree of compliance with economic evaluation.Only when program design is effectively implemented,the investment returns meet the expectations of the preliminary economic evaluation.The irrationality of operational cost analysis and prediction,may lead to errors in economic evaluation.A longer evaluation period implies greater uncertainty and insufficient emphasis on benefits leads to distorted economic evaluation results.There is a big difference between economic evaluation and financial evaluation,and different perspectives of analysis can lead to cognitive bias.In order to improve the degree of conformity of economic evaluation,it is necessary to refine the design of the pre-feasibility study program,strengthen the construction of the economic evaluation system,enhance the capacity of economic evaluation,and emphasize the role of leading cadres in the economic evaluation work.

关 键 词：油气投资 经济评价 符合度 原因 对策 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]