强基层战略背景下海南省乡镇卫生院医疗服务能力现状及预测分析  

Service capacity of township health centers in Hainan Province under the background of“Primary Institution Enhancement”strategy:Status quo and forecast analysis

作　　者：农意扬 罗惠文 孟照霞 任琴 张新花 NONG Yiyang;LUO Huiwen;MENG Zhaoxia;REN Qin;ZHANG Xinhua(College of Humanities and Social Sciences,Guangxi Medical University,Nanning,Guangxi 530021,China;School of Information and Management,Guangxi Medical University,Nanning,Guangxi 530021,China)

机构地区：[1]广西医科大学人文社会科学学院,广西南宁530021 [2]广西医科大学信息与管理学院,广西南宁530021

出　　处：《中国农村卫生事业管理》2024年第2期137-142,共6页Chinese Rural Health Service Administration

基　　金：国家卫生健康委卫生发展研究中心委托课题(03302219011D)。

摘　　要：目的对海南省乡镇卫生院医疗资源配置和服务情况进行分析及预测,为进一步提升乡镇卫生院服务能力提供参考。方法采用统计描述法对2015—2021年海南省乡镇卫生院资源配置和服务产出等进行分析,采用时间序列法对2022-2025年的相关评价指标进行预测分析。结果在资源配置方面,2015年海南乡镇卫生院每千农业人口床位已达到1.3张的目标;2021年海南每千农业人口乡镇卫生院人员数为3.34人,预测结果表明未来该指标基本呈现上升趋势。在服务产出方面,2015—2021年乡镇卫生院诊疗人次和入院人数占全省总诊疗人次与住院人数的比重下降趋势明显且其预测值也将保持下降趋势,2022-2025年预测值分别为16.413%、14.819%、13.545%、12.483%和3.113%、2.742%、2.379%、2.056%。结论海南省乡镇卫生院整体医疗服务能力有了一定提升,但相较于规划目标和全省医疗机构而言仍然存在资源相对紧缺和医疗服务能力较弱等问题。Objective To analyze and predict the health resource allocation and service of township health centers in Hainan Province,and to provide reference for further improvement in the medical service capability of township health centers.Methods The resource allocation and service output of township health centers in Hainan Province from 2015 to 2021 were analyzed by descriptive statistics,and the relevant evaluation indicators from 2022 to 2025 were predicted by time series analysis methods.Results In terms of resource allocation,Hainan township health centers had reached the target of 1.3 beds per 1,000 agricultural population in 2015;In 2021,the number of township health center personnel per 1,000 agricultural population in Hainan was 3.34,indicating that this indicator would basically show an upward trend in the future.In terms of service output,from 2015 to 2021,the proportion of diagnosis and treatment visits and the number of inpatients in township health centers in the total number of diagnosis and treatment visits and the number of inpatients in the province had an obvious downward trend and its predicted value would also maintain a downward trend.The predicted values for the years of 2022-2025 were 16.413%,14.819%,13.545%,12.483%,and 3.113%,2.742%,2.379%,2.056%,respectively.Conclusions The overall medical service capacity of township health centers in Hainan Province has been improved to some extent,but compared with the planning target and the service capacity of health institutions in the whole province,there are still some problems such as relatively shortage of resources and weak medical service capacity.

关 键 词：强基层 基层医疗机构 乡镇卫生院 医疗服务 医疗资源 预测分析 

分 类 号：R197.62[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]