基于改进N-K模型的地铁盾构掘进安全风险耦合研究  

Study on coupling of subway shield tunneling safety risk based on improved N-K model

作　　者：张建设[1] 黄艳龙 李瑚均 陈辉华[2] 何况 代姿爽 ZHANG Jianshe;HUANG Yanlong;LI Hujun;CHEN Huihua;HE Kuang;DAI Zishuang(School of Civil Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo Henan 454000,China;School of Civil Engineering,Central South University,Changsha Hunan 410075,China;Zhengzhou Metro Group Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou Henan 450014,China)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学土木工程学院,河南焦作454000 [2]中南大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410075 [3]郑州地铁集团有限公司,河南郑州450014

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第2期67-75,共9页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目资助(71942006);河南省高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助(NSFRF230426);河南理工大学博士基金资助(B2022-23);企业咨询项目(H22-541)。

摘　　要：为预防和控制地铁盾构掘进施工过程中的关键安全风险,并精准判断哪些风险耦合情境是导致事故发生的显著情境,提出改进N-K模型研究地铁盾构掘进安全风险耦合;综合运用文献研究、事故案例、专家访谈等方法,辨识地铁盾构掘进的关键安全风险因素;基于N-K模型提出新的地铁盾构掘进安全风险耦合评估模型,并选用安全事故案例验证该模型的适用性。结果表明:辨识得到地铁盾构掘进关键安全风险因素清单,包括4类一级风险因素,21个二级风险因素;地铁盾构掘进施工安全风险随着耦合因素种类的增加而变大,4因素风险耦合值最高,3因素风险耦合值次之,双因素风险耦合值最低,作业人员安全意识薄弱和机械故障参与作用的耦合情境更容易发生安全事故。In order to effectively prevent and control the key safety risks in subway shield tunneling construction and accurately judge which risk coupling scenarios were significant ones leading to accidents,an improved N-K model was proposed to study the coupling effect of safety risks in subway shield tunneling.The key safety risks of subway shield tunneling were identified by comprehensively using literature research,accident case analysis and expert interview.Based on the N-K model,a new coupling analysis model of subway shield tunneling safety risk was proposed,and the applicability of the model was verified by a safety accident case.The results show that the list of key safety risk factors of subway shield tunneling is obtained,including 4 first-level risk factors(i.e.,personnel-type,equipment-type,environment-type and management-type safety risks)and 21 second-level risk factors.The safety risk value of subway shield tunneling construction increases with the increase of coupling factors.Safety risk coupling values with four factors are the highest,followed by the coupling values of three factors,and safety risk coupling values with two factors are the lowest.Coupling scenarios with workers'low safety awareness and machine failure participating are more susceptible to safety accidents.

关 键 词：改进N-K模型 盾构掘进施工 安全风险 风险因素 风险耦合 

分 类 号：X948[环境科学与工程—安全科学]