基于耦合协调分析的火灾-经济-环境时空演化研究  

Research on spatio-temporal evolution of fire-economy-environment based on coupling coordination analysis

作　　者：向月 骆鑫 秦毅 钱一诺 XIANG Yue;LUO Xin;QIN Yi;QIAN Yinuo(Safety Engineering Institute,Chongqing University of Science and Technology,Chongqing 401331,China;College of Safety Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan Anhui 232000,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆科技大学安全工程学院,重庆401331 [2]安徽理工大学安全科学与工程学院,安徽淮南232000

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第2期103-109,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金面上项目资助(cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0809);重庆市教委科学技术研究计划青年项目(KJQN202001537);四川省重点研发项目(2021YFS0362)。

摘　　要：为探究火灾、经济、环境的时空演化特征,基于2000—2019年中国火灾、经济、环境数据,建立火灾-经济-环境耦合协调模型,研究火灾、经济、环境系统的耦合发展水平;结合探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法研究我国31个省域各子系统时空演变特征及聚集性,并基于Moran'I检验开展火灾、经济、环境空间相关性分析。研究结果表明:2000—2019年火灾、经济和环境综合发展耦合良好。从时间维度上,2000—2019年耦合度和协调度呈上升趋势,耦合度受火灾综合得分影响,协调度受经济子系统影响;从空间维度上,经济发展是影响31个省域耦合协调度的主要因素。从耦合关系时空演变分析看,省域耦合度随时间呈聚集状态,耦合协调度在空间聚集中呈随机性。火灾、经济和环境对耦合协调的不同影响,导致协调类型及空间聚集状态不同。In order to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of fire,economy and environment,based on the data of fire,economy and environment in China from 2000 to 2019,a fire-economy-environment coupling coordination model was established to study the coupling development level of fire,economy and environment system.Combined with ESDA method,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and aggregation of each subsystem in 31 provinces were studied,and the spatial correlation analysis of fire,economy and environment was carried out based on Moran'I test.The research shows that the comprehensive development of fire,economy and environment has been well coupled from 2000 to 2019.From the time dimension,the coupling degree and coordination degree showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2019.The coupling degree was affected by the fire comprehensive score,and the coordination degree was affected by the economic subsystem.From the spatial dimension,economic development is the main factor affecting the coupling coordination degree of 31 provinces.From the analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of the coupling relationship,the provincial coupling degree is aggregated with time,and the coupling coordination degree is random in spatial aggregation.The different effects of fire,economy and environment on coupling coordination lead to different coordination types and spatial aggregation states.

关 键 词：火灾-经济-环境 耦合协调度 时空演化 探索性空间数据分析(ESDA) 熵值法 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X915.4