中日韩自贸区的贸易增加值效应及福利影响——基于SbA-GTAP模型的分析  

Value-added in Trade Effect and Welfare Impact of China-Japan-ROK FTA--Analysis Based on SbA-GTAP Model

作　　者：曾勇 彭水军[2] 黄峰 ZENG Yong;PENG Shuijun;HUANG Feng

机构地区：[1]江苏第二师范学院商学院 [2]厦门大学经济学院 [3]福建商学院国际经贸学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2024年第2期141-157,共17页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“新时期开放中提升国际循环质量和水平以畅通国内国际双循环的实现路径研究”(23ZDA053)。

摘　　要：本文通过构建SbA-GTAP模型并与贸易增加值分解框架有机结合,量化评估了中日韩自贸区的贸易增加值效应及福利影响。结果显示:成立中日韩自贸区将有利于提升三国的实际贸易利益,并进一步强化三国间的价值链关联,同时,自贸区生效将显著提升三国的福利水平;就产业层面而言,中日韩自贸区成立将促进三国在电子电气设备产业价值链上的分工协作,中国与日韩在汽车及石化产业链上的合作也将进一步深化;不同于电子电气设备产业,中国在纺织服装产业仍将保持较大优势;在中日韩自贸区深度一体化情形下,三国出口的贸易增加值将进一步攀升且国内增加值占比大幅提高,表明自贸区深度一体化不仅可以促进贸易增加值规模的扩大,而且对三国在出口中所获实际贸易利益的促进作用更为显著。同时,中日韩三国的福利将获得更大幅度提升,自贸区深度一体化显著放大了自贸区所带来的福利增进效应。本文为量化评估自由贸易协定对成员国经济贸易的影响提供了一个全新的分析框架。This article makes a quantitative assessment of value-added in trade effect and welfare impact of China-Japan-ROK FTA(CJK FTA)by constructing the SbAGTAP model and organically combining it with the value-added in trade decomposition framework.The results show that:the establishment of CJK FTA will be beneficial for enhancing the actual trade interests of the three countries,further strengthening the value chain linkage,and significantly improving the welfare level of those countries.At the industrial level,the establishment of CJK FTA will promote closer division of labor and cooperation among the three countries in the value chain of the electrical and electronic equipment industry.Cooperation between China,Japan and South Korea in the automotive and petrochemical industries will also be further deepened.Unlike the electrical and electronic equipment industry,China will still maintain a significant advantage in the textile industry.In the case of deep integration of CJK FTA,the value-added in trade of exports of the three countries has further increased and the proportion of domestic value-added has significantly increased,which shows that the deep integration of FTA not only promotes the expansion of the scale of value-added in trade,but also plays a more positive role in promoting the actual trade gains of the three countries in exports.Meanwhile,the welfare of China,Japan and South Korea will be significantly improved.The deep integration of FTA has significantly amplified the welfare enhancement effect brought by FTA.This article provides a new analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating the impact of FTA on the economy and trade of member countries.

关 键 词：中日韩自贸区 贸易增加值 SbA-GTAP模型 自贸区深度一体化 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]