国际铜价波动对铜陵铜产业的影响研究  

The Impact of the International Copper Price Fluctuation on the Copper Industry in Tongling

作　　者：王小娜 张三宝 刘琼 代金宏 WANG Xiao-na;ZHANG San-bao;LIU Qiong;DAI Jin-hong(School of Finance,Tongling University,Tongling Anhui 244061,China)

机构地区：[1]铜陵学院金融学院,安徽铜陵244061

出　　处：《铜陵学院学报》2024年第1期7-11,120,共6页Journal of Tongling University

基　　金：铜陵学院科研计划项目“大宗商品价格波动对长三角地区经济运行的影响研究”(2022tlxy07);安徽省高校科研计划重大项目“数字普惠金融助推安徽制造业结构升级的作用机理及路径选择”(2022AH040245)。

摘　　要：文章基于LME期铜价格和铜产业链数据,利用VAR模型探究国际铜价波动对铜陵铜产业的影响。结果表明:国际铜价波动与铜陵市铜产业上游电解铜产量、下游电子元件数量之间存在双向因果关系,与中游铜材产量之间存在单向因果关系;国际铜价波动对铜陵市上游电解铜产量有强度不高但较为长期的正向影响,对下游电子元件数量的影响虽有滞后但影响最大。为降低国际铜价波动带来的冲击,铜陵市需要联合上市公司形成国际铜价监测体系降低波动率风险,依托已有的基础骨干企业完成铜产业链上中下游的有效衔接和整合,从自身资源禀赋出发构建良好的科技创新融资环境。Based on LME copper price and copper industry chain data,this paper uses VAR model to explore the impact of international copper price fluctuation on Tongling copper industry.The results show that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between the fluctuation of international copper price and the output of electrolytic copper in the upstream and the quantity of electronic components in the downstream,and a unidirectional causal relationship between the fluctuation of international copper price and the output of copper in the middle reaches of Tongling copper industry.The fluctuation of international copper price has a small but long-term positive impact on the production of electrolytic copper in the upstream of Tongling City,and the impact on the number of electronic components in the downstream is delayed but the biggest.In order to reduce the impact of international copper price fluctuations,Tongling City needs to cooperate with listed companies to form an international copper price monitoring system to reduce volatility risks,rely on the existing basic backbone enterprises to complete the effective connection and integration of the copper industry chain in the middle and downstream,and build a good financing environment for scientific and technological innovation based on its own resource endowment.

关 键 词：铜价 铜产业 经济影响 VAR 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]