贸易政策不确定性与技术创新——基于贸易网络的调节效应  

A Study of the Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Technological Innovation Based on Moderating Effects of Trade Networks

作　　者：邢孝兵[1] 高佳伟 XING Xiaobing;GAO Jiawei(School of International Economics and Trade,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第2期43-53,112,共12页Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金项目(2008085MG232);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(ACYC2021201)。

摘　　要：随着全球贸易保护主义趋势不断加强,各国的贸易政策不确定性也在不断增加。文章基于2008-2019年79个国家的相关数据,实证分析了贸易政策不确定性对技术创新的影响。研究结果表明:由贸易政策干预所引起的贸易政策不确定性的增加,不利于受影响国技术创新水平的提高;相较于发达国家,发展中国家技术创新受贸易政策不确定性的影响更为显著;贸易政策不确定性的增加不利于受影响国技术创新水平的提高,但受影响国可以通过提高自身的贸易网络地位,减弱贸易政策不确定性对技术创新的负面影响。在全球贸易保护主义趋势不断加强的背景下,各国应根据国情制定相关政策,积极推动国家间经济合作的达成来应对贸易政策不确定性所带来的影响。With the increasing trend of global trade protectionism,the trade policy uncertainty of countries around the world is also increasing.Based on the relevant data from 79 countries from 2008 to 2019,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of trade policy uncertainty on technological innovation.The findings show that the increase in trade policy uncertainty caused by trade policy intervention is not conducive to the improvement of technological innovation in the affected countries.The technological innovation in developing countries is significantly affected by trade policy uncertainty,while it is not significant in developed countries.The increase in trade policy uncertainty hinders the improvement of technological innovation in the affected countries.However,the affected countries can attenuate the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on technological innovation by improving their trade networks status.In the background of the increasing trend of global trade protectionism,all countries should formulate relevant policies in light of their respective national circumstances and actively promote economic cooperation among countries to address the impact of trade policy uncertainty.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 技术创新 贸易网络接近中心度 调节效应 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易] F746[经济管理—产业经济]