天山南坡阿克苏流域冰川物质平衡及其融水径流对气候变化的响应研究  

Response of glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff to climate change in the Akesu River Basin,southern Tianshan

作　　者：王鹏寿 许民 韩海东 李振中 宋轩宇 周卫永 WANG Pengshou;XU Min;HAN Haidong;LI Zhenzhong;SONG Xuanyu;ZHOU Weiyong(School of Mathematics,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Faculty of Geomatic,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学数理学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《地学前缘》2024年第2期435-446,共12页Earth Science Frontiers

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41971094,41871055);中国科学院青促会人才项目(2019414);中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室开放课题项目(SKLCS-OP-2021-11);甘肃省优秀研究生“创新之星”项目(2023CXZX-591)。

摘　　要：冰川融水是西北干旱区水资源重要组成部分,定量评估其变化对中、下游生态环境保护和工农业经济可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于国家气象台站日降水和气温资料、数字高程模型(DEM)以及第一次冰川编目数据,利用度日模型模拟了天山南坡阿克苏流域1957—2017年冰川物质平衡及其融水径流变化,分析了融水径流组成及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:1957—2017年流域年平均物质平衡为-94.6 mm w.e.,61年累积物质平衡为-5.8 m w.e.。流域冰川物质平衡线呈显著上升趋势,年均上升速率为1.6 m/a。研究区年均融水径流量为53.1×10^(8)m^(3),融水增加速率为0.24×10^(8)m^(3)/a,融水径流及其组成分量均呈显著增加趋势。在气候暖湿化背景下,流域降水的增加使得冰川区积累量增加,在剧烈的升温作用下,冰川消融加剧,气温对融水径流的作用增大,因此冰川物质平衡亏损产生的水文效应增强。研究结果可提升区域冰川水资源效应变化及其影响的认识。Glacial meltwater is an important constituent of water resource in arid region of northwestern China.Quantitative assessment of meltwater changes is of significance to environmental protection and sustainable development of industry and agriculture in the middle and lower reaches.In this study,the glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff in the Akesu River Basin,southern Tianshan during a 60-yr period from 1957 to 2017 are simulated by the degree-day method,using daily precipitation and air temperature data,Digital Elevation Model(DEM)and glacier distribution data.Runoff components and runoff response to climate change are analyzed.During the 60-yr period,the mean annual mass balance was-94.6 mm w.e./a and the accumulative mass balance was-5.8 m w.e.The Equilibrium-Line Altitude(ELA)showed a trend of runoff increase at a rate of 1.6 m/a.During the same period,meltwater runoff and runoff components showed significant increasing trend,where the mean-annual-total-runoff was 53.1×10^(8)m^(3)/a and the rate of runoff increase was 0.24×10^(8)m^(3)/a.Under warm and humid climate,glacier ice accumulation increased with increasing precipitation in the basin.Whilst,due to significant rise in temperature,glacial melting intensified and the effect of temperature on meltwater runoff increased.Therefore,the hydrological effect caused by the loss of glacier mass balance is enhanced.Results from this study help to further understanding of the effects of changes in regional glacier water resource.

关 键 词：度日模型 冰川物质平衡 融水径流 阿克苏流域 气候变化 

分 类 号：P334.92[天文地球—水文科学] P343.6[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P467[天文地球—地球物理学]