基于Markov-PLUS模型的延安市土地利用多情景模拟研究  

Multi-Scenario Simulation Study of Land Use in Yan'an City Based on Markov-PLUS Model

作　　者：李夏瑜 陈春[1] 李康琪 LI Xiayu;CHEN Chun;LI Kangqi(Smart City College,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学智慧城市学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《内蒙古师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期153-162,共10页Journal of Inner Mongolia Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“自然资源部国土空间规划监测评估预警重点实验室开放项目”(42071218)。

摘　　要：为探究延安市未来土地利用发展趋势,促进土地资源合理利用,基于延安市2010和2020年土地利用数据,运用Markov-PLUS模型,分别从自然发展、生态保护、经济增长三种情境,预测2030年延安市土地利用情况及其发展变化。结果表明:(1)2010-2020年,延安市全市范围内的耕地、林地面积减少,草地面积增长缓慢,水域、建设用地以及未利用地面积大幅度增长,但随着时间发展,建设用地不断扩张会破坏生态的稳定性,因此需要关注各类用地发展占比,合理分配用地;(2)PLUS模型模拟精度较高,Kappa系数为0.94;(3)基于2030年三种情景模拟情况比较,自然发展情景中仅有建设用地面积有所增加,在生态保护情景下,生态环境面积减少低于其他两种发展情景,且有效遏制了用地扩张,经济增长情景中,耕地及建设用地面积增幅明显。To investigate the development trend of land use in Yan'an and promote the rational utilization of land resources there,the situation of land use and its development changes in Yan'an in 2030 were predicted from three scenarios,natural development,ecological protection and economic growth,by using the Markov-PLUS model based on the land use data of Yan'an in 2010 and 2020.The results showed that(1)from 2010 to 2020,cultivated land and forest land decreased throughout the city,and grassland less increased,but waters,construction land and unused land increased significantly,of which the forest land and grassland account for more than 72%,however,with the time,the continuous expansion of construction land would be bound to destroy ecological stability and the necessary attention should be paid to the proportion of various types of land and reasonable allocation of the land;that(2)the simulation accuracy of the PLUS model was high,achieving a Kappa coefficient of 0.94;that(3)in the comparison of the simulated results for three scenarios in 2030,only the construction land in the natural development scenario increased,under the ecological protection scenario,the decrease in ecological environment area was lower than that of the other two development scenarios,and the expansion of land unreasonable use was effectively curbed,the cultivated land and construction land increased significantly in the economic growth scenario.

关 键 词：土地利用 多情景模拟 PLUS模型 延安市 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程] F301.2[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]