环境变化对澜沧江出境水文过程变异的影响  

Impact of environmental changes on variability of outlet hydrological process of the Lancang River basin

作　　者：王乐扬 张建云 宁忠瑞[2,4] 贾雨凡 孙高霞 王国庆[3,5] WANG Yueyang;ZHANG Jianyun;NING Zhongrui;JIA Yufan;SUN Gaoxia;WANG Guoqing(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Nanjing 210098,China;National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety and Hydro Science,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Research Center for Climate Change,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏南京210098 [3]南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [4]河海大学水安全与水科学协同创新中心,江苏南京210098 [5]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水科学进展》2024年第2期313-324,共12页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(92047301;52121006)。

摘　　要：变化环境改变河流水文节律,影响流域水资源的开发利用;澜沧江-湄公河是位于东南亚源于中国西南的跨境河流,科学厘清澜沧江径流变化原因是实现澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水利益共享的重要基础工作。基于1961—2020年允景洪水文站的实测径流量资料,采用数理统计与水文模拟相结合的研究途径,诊断径流序列的变异特征,定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流及其年内分配的影响。结果表明:①1961—2020年允景洪站实测年径流量呈显著性减少趋势,其中,1—5月径流量呈增加趋势,6—12月径流量呈减少趋势;实测年径流量在2008年发生突变。②RCCC-WBM模型能够较好地模拟基准期(1961—2008年)的天然径流量过程,模拟相对误差小于1%;模拟的人类活动影响期间(2009—2020年)天然径流量约为371.8 mm,较基准期偏少6.8%,这是气候变化引起的。③水利工程建设运行是澜沧江最主要的人类活动,是水库蓄水运行期(2009—2013年)径流减少的主要原因;气候变化对水库稳定正常运行期(2014—2020年)径流减少贡献更大,约为61.7%。④水库运行调度使得2014—2020年汛期(6—11月)径流量减少44.3%,非汛期(12月至翌年5月)径流量增加134.3%;澜沧江干流水库对径流的削峰补枯调节作用在一定程度上保障了湄公河中下游的防洪安全与供水安全。Environment change alters hydrological rhythms and affects utilization of water resources for a river basin.The Lancang-Mekong River is a transboundary river in Southeast Asia originated in the Southwestern China.It is of significance to scientifically quantifying runoff change attribution of the Langcang River for supporting water benefits share between countries which the Lancang-Mekong River runs across.Based on the recorded runoff data series from 1961 to 2020 gauged at the Yunjinghong hydrometric station on the Langcang River,the variability characteristics of runoff series and the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff change as well as its seasonal distribution were investigated by using statistical methods and hydrological simulation methods.The results show that:①The measured annual runoff at Yunjinghong station showed a significant decrease trend from 1961 to 2020,with an increase in runoff during the period from January to May and a decrease in runoff in period from June to December.The abrupt change of the measured annual runoff series was occurred in 2008.②The RCCC-WBM model performs well for monthly natural discharge simulation in the baseline period of 1961—2008 with relative error of less than 1.0%.The simulated natural annual runoff in the human-disturbance period of 2009—2020 is about 371.8 mm,which is 6.8%less than that in baseline period.The reduction is induced by climate change.③Reservoirs construction and operation is the utmost human activity in the Langcang River.Human activities are the main reason of runoff decrease in the reservoir impoundment period of 2009—2013,while climate change is principal driver of runoff reduction in in the reservoir operation period of 2014—2020,which contribution is about 61.7%of total runoff reduction.④The reservoirs operation makes runoff decrease by 44.3%in flood season from June to November and increase by 134.3%in dry season from December to May for period of 2014—2020.The regulation function of reservoirs on the Langc

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 径流量 RCCC-WBM模型 归因识别 澜沧江流域 

分 类 号：TV121.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]