基于EAHP-EWM-博弈TOPSIS的大坝风险 识别方法  

Dam Risk Identification Method Based on EAHP-EWM-TOPSIS

作　　者：詹明强 陈波[2] 田菊飞 胡泽林 潘辛梅 ZHAN Mingqiang;CHEN Bo;TIAN Jufei;HU Zelin;PAN Xinmei(Fujian Shuikou Power Generation Group Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350001,China;College of Water Conservancy&Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;PowerChina Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited,Xi an 710000,China)

机构地区：[1]福建水口发电集团有限公司,福建福州350001 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [3]中国电建西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,陕西西安710000

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第4期71-76,共6页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52079049、52239009);国家重点实验室基本科研业务费(522012272)。

摘　　要：针对大坝风险指标具有不确定性和模糊性的特征,提出了1种基于EAHP-EWM-博弈TOPSIS组合模型的大坝风险识别模型,即通过可拓层次分析法和熵权法分别确定风险评价指标的主、客观权重,同时引入博弈理论确定最佳组合权重,并构造加权标准化决策矩阵,然后利用TOPSIS法计算出各风险因子与理想解的相对接近度作为风险因子排序的依据来识别大坝的主要风险源,最后将该方法应用于福建省某大坝的风险识别。工程实例表明,影响该大坝安全服役的主要风险因子为坝体渗流与两岸渗流,相对接近度分别为0.7127、0.8552,识别的主要风险因子和工程实际情况相吻合,验证了模型的有效性。本模型的区分度相比其他模型更明显,为大坝的除险加固和风险管理提供了有效依据。To address the uncertainty and fuzziness of dam risk indicators,this paper proposes a dam risk identification model based on the EAHP-EWM-TOPSIS game combination model.This is to determine the subjective and objective weights of risk evaluation indicators by extension analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method respectively.Meanwhile,the game theory is introduced to determine the optimal combination weight,and a weighted standardized decision matrix is constructed.Then,the TOPSIS method is employed to calculate the relative proximity between each risk factor and the ideal solution as the basis for ranking risk factors to identify the main risk sources of dams.The engineering example shows that the main risk factors affecting the safe service of the dams are dam seepage and cross-bank seepage,with the relative proximity of 0.7127 and 0.8552 respectively.The identified main risk factors are consistent with the actual engineering situation,which verifies the model effectiveness.The differentiation degree of this model is more obvious than other models,providing an effective basis for dam reinforcement and risk management.

关 键 词：可拓层次分析法 熵权法 TOPSIS 大坝风险识别 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]