基于多种预测模型的我国执业(助理)医师规模预测分析  

Prediction and analysis of the scale of practicing(assistant)physicians in China based on multiple prediction models

作　　者：丁昊 冯静 翟铁民 李岩 万泉 DING Hao;FENG Jing;ZHAI Tiemin;LI Yan;WAN Quan(School of Economics and Management,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan Hebei 063210,China;China National Health Development Research Center,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]华北理工大学经济管理学院,河北唐山063210 [2]国家卫生健康委卫生发展研究中心,北京100044

出　　处：《卫生软科学》2024年第4期62-65,共4页Soft Science of Health

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(72374052)。

摘　　要：[目的]预测2023-2030年执业(助理)医师规模变化趋势,为政府部门优化执业(助理)医师配置提供参考建议。[方法]通过对灰色模型法、人力/人口比值法、卫生服务需求法进行组合,依据不同权重,预测2023-2030年执业(助理)医师规模。[结果]2023-2030年我国执业(助理)医师规模逐步增长,每千人口执业(助理)医师由2023年4.16人增长至2025年4.37人,2030年将达到4.88人。[结论]不等权组合模型方法切实可行,我国执业(助理)医师总量将继续保持增长,但仍未能满足居民医疗卫生服务需求。Objective To predict the change trend of the scale of practicing(assistant)physicians from 2023 to 2030,and provide the reference and suggestions for government departments to optimize the allocation of practicing(assistant)physicians.Methods By combining the grey model,manpower/population ratio,and health service demand,the scale of practicing(assistant)physicians from 2023 to 2030 is predicted according to different weights.Results From 2023 to 2030,the number of practicing(assistant)physicians in China will gradually increase,and the number of practicing(assistant)physicians per thousand population will increase from 4.16 in 2023 to 4.37 in 2025 and 4.88 in 2030.Conclusions The unequal weight combination model is practical and feasible.The total number of practicing(assistant)physicians in China will continue to grow,but it has not yet met the needs of residents for medical and health services.

关 键 词：执业(助理)医师 预测 规模 不等权组合模型 

分 类 号：R192.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]