基于ARIMA线性时间序列的埋地输油管道剩余寿命预测  

Residual Life Prediction of Buried Oil Pipeline Based on ARIMA Linear Time Series

作　　者：孙建波 SUN Jianbo(Wuchang Natural Gas Center Station of Xinjiang Oilfield Oil and Gas Storage and Transportation Branch,Urumqi Xinjiang 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆油田油气储运分公司乌昌天然气中心站,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《辽宁化工》2024年第3期471-475,共5页Liaoning Chemical Industry

摘　　要：针对埋地输油管道剩余寿命预测问题,构建基于ARIMA线性时间序列的埋地输油管道剩余寿命预测模型,并对输油管道剩余寿命进行预测。结果表明:基于ARIMA模型预测出该段管道的剩余寿命为27年,与专业的压力实验计算出的剩余使用寿命28年最为接近,与其他模型对比研究,ARIMA模型更为准确地预测出管道剩余寿命。Aiming at the problem of residual life prediction of buried oil pipeline,a residual life prediction model of buried oil pipeline based on ARIMA linear time series was constructed,and the residual life of oil pipeline was predicted.The results showed that based on ARIMA model,the residual life of this pipeline was predicted to be 27 years,which was the closest to the residual life of 28 years calculated by professional pressure experiments.Compared with other models,ARIMA model could predict the remaining life of the pipeline more accurately.

关 键 词：输油管道 剩余寿命 ARIMA时间序列 

分 类 号：TE988.2[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]