中国三大粮食作物产能提升的源泉  

Source of China’s three major grain production capacity increases

作　　者：杨骞 祝辰辉[1,2] 寇相涛 白鲁佳 YANG Qian;ZHU Chenhui;KOU Xiangtao;BAI Lujia(School of Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China;Center for High Quality Development,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学经济学院,山东济南250014 [2]山东财经大学高质量发展研究中心,山东济南250014

出　　处：《中国软科学》2024年第4期46-55,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“‘双碳’背景下农业减排固碳与粮食安全协同推进研究”(22AJY008);“泰山学者工程专项经费”。

摘　　要：保障粮食和重要农产品稳定安全供给始终是建设农业强国的头等大事。在新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升背景下,聚焦稻谷、小麦、玉米三大主要粮食作物,利用增长核算分析框架揭示中国三大主要粮食作物产能提升的源泉。研究发现:对于稻谷和小麦而言,全要素生产率提升是这两类作物产能提升的主要源泉,其对稻谷、小麦产能提升的贡献率分别达到85.39%、100.93%,拉动稻谷、小麦产能分别提升0.91%、2.39%。就玉米而言,党的十八大之前,土地是玉米产能提升的主要源泉,其贡献率达到64.13%,拉动玉米产能提升4.11%;党的十八大以来,全要素生产率成为玉米产能提升的主要源泉,其贡献率达到64.38%,拉动玉米产能提升1.27%。研究结果为粮食品种结构优化及粮食产量可持续增长提供重要参考。Based on the new round of 100 billion catty of grain production capacity increase action,this paper uses the growth accounting framework to reveal the sources of China’s rice,wheat,and corn production capacity increase.Results show that:total factor productivity improvement is the main source of grain production capacity increase for rice and wheat,and its contribution for the two grain reaches 85.39%and 100.93%,pulling the production capacity increase of them by 0.91%and 2.39%respectively.For corn,before the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,land is the main source of its production capacity increase,with a contribution rate of 64.13%,pulling corn production capacity up by 4.11%.Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,total factor productivity has shifted to be the main source of production capacity increase,with a contribution rate of 64.38%,pulling corn production capacity increase by 1.27%.This paper provides important references for the optimization of grain structure as well as the sustainable growth of grain production.

关 键 词：粮食产能提升 粮食安全 索洛余值 全要素生产率 增长源泉 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]