中国居民收入与家庭碳达峰:基于CGSS数据与多项Logit模型  

Chinese household income and household carbon peaking:Based on CGSS data and multinomial Logit model

作　　者：陈林 王佳莹 陈臻 周立宏 CHEN Lin;WANG Jiaying;CHEN Zhen;ZHOU Lihong(Institute of Industrial Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Science,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学产业经济研究院,广东广州510632 [2]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [3]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《中国软科学》2024年第4期166-175,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72303045);广东省哲学社会科学规划基础理论研究重大课题项目(GD21ZDZYJ01);广东省自然科学基金面上项目(2022A1515011107)。

摘　　要：基于2015年和2018年CGSS家庭微观数据,构建多项Logit模型,实证检验居民收入对家庭碳达峰偏离度的影响。研究发现:居民收入增长对家庭直接碳达峰偏离度和间接碳达峰偏离度均产生显著的促进作用,进而提升家庭部门碳达峰偏离度,且家庭碳达峰偏离水平越低,收入增长产生影响的可能性就越小。异质性分析表明,中西部地区家庭的低碳消费模式较为稳定,东部地区则需关注高碳排放风险,且教育水平提升能够缓解因居民收入增长带来的家庭碳达峰偏离度提升问题。因此,我国政府应引导培养家庭节约集约的绿色生活观念,以推动家庭消费绿色低碳转型和碳达峰碳中和目标的实现。Utilizing 2015 and 2018 CGSS household microdata,this study constructs multiple Logit models to empirically examine the influence of resident income on the deviation from household carbon peaking.The study found that the growth of residents’income has a significant promoting effect on both the household direct carbon peak deviation and the indirect carbon peak deviation,thereby increasing the household sector carbon peak deviation,and the lower the level of carbon peak deviation in households,the less likely it is for income growth to have an impact.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the low-carbon consumption pattern of households in the central and western regions is relatively stable,while the eastern region needs to pay attention to high carbon emission risks,and the improvement of education level can alleviate the problem of increasing household carbon peak deviation caused by the growth of residents’income.Therefore,the Chinese government should guide and cultivate the concept of a green and frugal lifestyle among families to promote the transformation of household consumption towards green,low-carbon practices and achieve carbon peak and neutrality goals.

关 键 词：碳达峰碳中和 节约型社会 家庭碳达峰 多项Logit模型 CGSS家庭微观数据 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]