迈向高收入经济体必须系统解决消费需求不足问题  

Moving towards a high-income economy requires a systematic solution to the lack of consumer demand

作　　者：马晓河[1] Ma Xiaohe

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院

出　　处：《全球化》2024年第2期5-18,134,共15页Globalization

摘　　要：2022年,中国人均国民总收入(GNI)已达到高收入国家最低门槛值的97.3%。根据国际经验,在迈向高收入国家门槛时,消费对经济增长的推动作用会越来越大,如何增加社会消费就成为经济增长的一个重要命题。长期以来,我国消费增长一直受到高投资特别是无效、低效投资的挤压,导致在国内生产总值(GDP)中消费率持续偏低、投资率奇高。当前,我国消费增长不足是系统性变量综合影响因素形成的。一是居民收入增长放缓抑制了居民购买能力的提升和社会消费规模的扩大;二是劳动者报酬占GDP比重偏低压低了居民对商品和服务的购买能力;三是不同收入群体之间收入差距大直接降低了社会消费的整体增长;四是社会再分配功能偏弱不能消除居民消费的“后顾之忧”;五是供给结构适配性不足难以适应国内消费结构转型升级的要求;六是消费市场环节痛点堵点多,扩大消费需求的体制机制有待理顺。必须从体制和政策上根本解决居民不能消费、不敢消费、不愿消费和难以扩大消费的问题。In 2022,Chinese’s gross national income(GNI)per capita has reached 97.3%of the minimum threshold for high-income countries.According to international experience,when moving towards the threshold of high-income countries,consumption will play an increasingly important role in promoting economic growth,and how to increase social consumption has become an important proposition for economic growth.For a long time,China’s consumption growth has been squeezed by high investment,especially ineffective and inefficient investment,resulting in a sustained low consumption rate and an extremely high investment rate in the gross domestic product(GDP).At present,the insufficient growth of consumption in China is formed by the comprehensive influencing factors of systemic variables.First,the slowdown in the growth of residents’income has inhibited the improvement of residents’purchasing power and the expansion of the scale of social consumption;second,the low proportion of workers’remuneration in GDP has depressed residents’purchasing power for goods and services;third,the large income gap between different income groups directly reduces the overall growth of social consumption;fourth,the social redistribution function is weak,which cannot eliminate the“worries”of residents’consumption;fifth,the adaptability of the supply structure is insufficient,and it is difficult to meet the requirements of the transformation and upgrading of the domestic consumption structure;sixth,there are many pain points in the consumer market,and the system and mechanism for expanding consumer demand need to be straightened out.It is necessary to fundamentally solve the problems of residents not being able to consume,not daring to consume,unwilling to consume,and finding it difficult to expand consumption in terms of system and policy.

关 键 词：投资消费 居民收入 社会保障 供求结构 体制政策 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]