我国人口与经济发展的匹配性研究  

Research on the matching relationship between China’s population and economic and social development and its new changes

作　　者：费太安 Fei Taian

机构地区：[1]国家信息中心

出　　处：《全球化》2024年第2期77-92,136,共17页Globalization

摘　　要：优化人口与生产要素组合实现更有效匹配,在当前和今后一个时期尤为重要。本文通过挖掘分析历次全国人口普查数据和相关经济数据,研究了新中国特别是改革开放以来人口与经济分布格局、经济增长、产业和城乡结构、区域发展、贸易类型、高质量发展的匹配关系。基于人口的规模、结构、特点和发展趋势,适时调整政策推动人力资源与生产要素的有效匹配,是获取人口红利推动经济增长的关键。我国人口总体上快速进入负增长阶段,呈现劳动力供给持续减少,人口老龄化阶段性加深,农村人口结构失衡加剧等特点。人口形势的新变化,对经济增长、城镇化格局和公共支出风险都提出了严峻挑战。本研究展现了改革开放以来人力资源与经济社会发展的匹配关系,揭示了在人口发展新形势下实现中国式现代化,需要适时调整优化经济、社会和人口政策等方面的思路。In the face of the new situation of population,it is particularly important to make the population and production factors more effectively match in the future.By studying the data of previous national censuses,this paper analyzes the matching relationship between population and economic distribution,economic growth,industrial and urban-rural structure,regional development,trade type,and high-quality development in New China,especially since the reform and opening up.Based on the size,structure,characteristics and development trend of the population,timely adjustment of policies to promote the effective matching of human resources and production factors is the key to obtaining the demographic dividend and promoting economic growth.On the whole,China’s population has rapidly entered a stage of negative growth,which is characterized by the continuous decrease in labor supply,the deepening of population aging,and the aggravation of the imbalance in rural population structure.New demographic changes pose serious challenges to economic growth,quality of life and public spending risks.This study shows the matching relationship between human resources and economic and social development since the reform and opening up,and reveals the problems of economic,social and population policies that need to be adjusted and optimized in a timely manner to achieve“Chinese path to modernization”under the new situation of population development.

关 键 词：人口负增长 老龄化 匹配关系 中国式现代化 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F124