一种适用于光伏高渗透率地区的太阳辐照短时预测技术研究  

Research on a short-term solar radiation prediction technology for photovoltaic high permeability area

作　　者：水恒华[1] 顾阳 徐晓春 张亮[1] 张朔 戴欣 SHUI Henghua;GU Yang;XU Xiaochun;ZHANG Liang;ZHANG Shuo;DAI Xin(School of Information and Communication Engineering,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,China.;Huaian Power Supply Company,State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Huaian 223001,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]南京工程学院信息与通信工程学院,南京211167 [2]国网江苏省电力有限公司淮安供电分公司,江苏淮安223001

出　　处：《电测与仪表》2024年第4期149-154,共6页Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation

基　　金：江苏省333科研项目(BRA2020319);江苏省重点研发计划项目(BE2017169);国网江苏省电力有限公司科技项目(J2020009)。

摘　　要：在光伏高渗透率地区,气象变化会引起光伏发电系统的出力波动,对该区域电网电压稳定及运行控制产生威胁。为此,论文设计了一套以STM32F103为核心处理器的微气象数据采集终端,选配光照和温湿度等智能传感器对光伏高渗透率地区的气象数据进行检测,并采用GPRS和http透传模块将测量数据上传至由Nginx服务器和Apache服务器混合组成的数据综合处理单元。其中,Nginx服务器主要负责数据的接入与分配,Apache服务器主要负责数据的分析与处理。最后,在Matlab中采用NARX神经网络模型对测量数据进行太阳辐照短时预测仿真研究。结果显示,所提的方案能够有效预测光伏电站周边区域的太阳辐照短时变化情况,可为新能源发电的功率变化预测和配电网优化运行控制提供一定支持。The fluctuation of PV system output caused by meteorological variations would threaten the voltage stability and operation control of the power grid in the area of high PV permeability.Therefore,a meteorological data acquisition terminal with STM32F103 as the core processor is designed in this paper,and intelligent sensors such as lighting,temperature,and humidity are selected to detect meteorological data in the area of high PV permeability.The measurement data is uploaded to the data integrated processing unit composed of Nginx server and Apache server by GPRS and http transparent transmission module.Among them,Nginx server is mainly responsible for data access and distribution,and Apache server is mainly responsible for data analysis and processing.Finally,a NARX neural network model is constructed in Matlab,and the short-term prediction of solar radiation is studied by using the measured data.The results show that the proposed scheme can effectively predict the short-term changes of solar radiation in the surrounding areas of photovoltaic power plants,and provide support for the prediction of power variations of new energy generation and the optimal operation control of distribution network.

关 键 词：光伏高渗透率 太阳辐照预测 微气象测量 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]