基于行政记录的三系统估计量在人口普查净误差估计中的应用  

Application of Administrative Record-based Triple-System Estimator for Estimating Net Errors in Population Census Data

作　　者：刘誉环 黄艳华 胡桂华[1] 文婷 LIU Yuhuan;HUANG Yanhua;HU Guihua;WEN Ting(School of Mathematics and Statistic,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;Research Center for Economy of Upper Reaches of Yangtze River,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学数学与统计学院,重庆400067 [2]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心,重庆400067

出　　处：《徐州工程学院学报（自然科学版）》2024年第1期85-98,共14页Journal of Xuzhou Institute of Technology(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划重点委托项目(2020WT24);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(20YJA910002);国家社科基金后期资助暨优秀博士论文一般项目(21FTJB002);重庆工商大学校级创新项目(yjscxx2023-211-194,yjscxx2023-211-73)。

摘　　要：针对目前广泛使用的双系统估计量内含交互作用偏差而有偏估计总体实际人口数及人口普查净误差的问题,提出利用普查人口名单、事后计数调查人口名单和行政记录人口名单构造的三系统估计量予以替代的研究目标.采用文献解读、实地调研、抽样估计和数理模型等方法研究适合于人口普查净误差估计的三系统估计量.研究结果表明,三系统估计量放宽了三份名单统计关系的限制,而且同时利用了两种辅助信息,因而提高了净误差估计精度.创新之处在于,利用自行调查获得的微观数据,全面演示了有关的计算过程,并从数据上比较了三系统估计量、双系统估计量和单系统估计量的精度.This paper proposes a triple-system estimator as a superior alternative estimation method to the widely used dual-system estimator to address the problem of interaction bias and biases in the estimation of the overall actual population and the net census error.The triple-system estimator is constructed using the census list,the post-enumeration survey list,and the administrative record list.Literature interpretation,field research,sample estimation,and mathematical modeling are used to examine the triple-system estimator's suitability for census net error estimation.The results show that the triple-system estimator relaxes the restriction of the statistical relationship of the three lists and improves the accuracy of the net error estimation by using two kinds of auxiliary information simultaneously,and thus has a higher estimation accuracy.The innovation lies in the use of micro data obtained from a self-survey,a comprehensive demonstration of the calculation process involved,and a data comparison of the precision of the triple-system estimator,the dual-system estimator,and the single-system estimator.

关 键 词：人口普查质量评估 三系统估计量 事后分层 分层刀切法 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]