区域高分辨率数值预报检验评估系统  

Verification and Evaluation System of Regional High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction

作　　者：陆天舒[1] 孙鑫 陈昊明[1] 李普曦 朱峰 霍庆 周佰铨 杨琳韵 Lu Tianshu;Sun Xin;Chen Haoming;Li Puxi;Zhu Feng;Huo Qing;Zhou Baiquan;Yang Linyun(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;Inner Mongolia Meteorological Observatory,Hohhot 010051;National Meteorological Information Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]内蒙古气象台,呼和浩特010051 [3]国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2024年第1期32-37,共6页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2142214);中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金项目(2023KJ028)。

摘　　要：近年来我国区域高分辨率数值预报业务发展迅速,目前传统检验方法已不能满足高分辨率模式降水检验评估需求。区域高分辨率数值预报检验评估系统在吸收降水传统检验方法优势的同时,融入基于降水发展演变过程的检验评估方法,旨在建立一套适用于高时空分辨率观测资料的精细化降水检验评估系统,为促进区域模式改进和高分辨率数值预报产品的偏差理解提供了重要参考,也为理解区域数值预报的模拟能力及其偏差提供了新的视角。In recent years,regional high resolution numerical weather prediction has developed rapidly.On the contrary,the traditional verification methods can’t meet the needs for the verification and evaluation of precipitation forecast by high-resolution models.The verification and evaluation system of regional high resolution numerical weather prediction takes advantages of traditional verification means while incorporating the verification and evaluation methods based on the precipitation development and evolution process,aiming to establish a refined precipitation verification and evaluation system suitable for high spatiotemporal resolution observation data.It not only provides an important reference for promoting the improvement of regional model and the understanding of deviation of high resolution numerical weather prediction products,but also provides a new perspective for understanding the simulation ability and deviation of regional numerical weather prediction.

关 键 词：数值天气预报 高分辨率模式 检验 评估 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]