基于模糊评价方法的中国海洋生态灾害重大事件应急能力评价研究  

Evaluation of Disposing Capacity for Marine Ecological Disaster Events in China Based on Fuzzy Evaluation Method

作　　者：王妍 Wang Yan

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学商学院

出　　处：《中国海洋经济》2024年第1期85-103,172,173,共21页Marine Economy in China

基　　金：山东省人文社会科学项目“山东省海洋生态灾害承灾体脆弱性评估及应急策略研究”(2021-YYGL-38);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“陆海统筹视角下近海生态退化多主体协同治理模式研究”(22YJAZH019);山东省自然科学基金项目“陆海统筹视域下山东省近海生态退化多主体协同治理模式仿真及机制优化研究”(ZR2022MG025)资助。

摘　　要：为预防海洋生态灾害重大事件的发生,最大限度地减少其造成的损失,有效保障沿海地区及其他地区人民群众的生命财产安全,我国应切实加强海洋生态灾害应急能力建设。本文在系统综述突发事件应急能力评价研究的基础上,根据海洋生态灾害应急能力系统要素构成和流程构成,结合海洋生态灾害重大事件应急的特点,运用文献分析法和德尔菲法构建了海洋生态灾害重大事件应急能力评价指标体系,运用层次分析法确定了海洋生态灾害重大事件应急能力评价指标权重,运用模糊评价方法对海洋生态灾害重大事件应急能力进行了评价。依据应急能力等级量化表中位数评价法进行评价,绿潮灾害重大事件应急能力为5.52,应急能力处于一般水平;赤潮灾害重大事件应急能力为4.80,应急能力处于较弱水平;溢油灾害重大事件应急能力为3.37,应急能力处于较弱水平。中国海洋生态灾害重大事件应急能力建设应不断完善海洋生态灾害重大事件应急法律体系、合理规划海洋生态灾害重大事件应急机构设置、进一步理顺海洋生态灾害重大事件应急机制、逐渐完备海洋生态灾害重大事件应急预案体系、增强应急主体对海洋生态灾害事件防范意识等。In order to prevent the occurrence of major marine ecological disasters,minimize the losses caused by them,effectively ensure the safety of people’s lives and property in coastal areas and other areas,and effectively strengthen the emergency response capacity of marine ecological disasters.On the basis of a systematic review of the research on emergency response capability evaluation,according to the composition of the elements and processes of the marine ecological disaster emergency response capability system,combined with the characteristics of marine ecological disaster emergency response,the evaluation index system of marine ecological disaster emergency response capability was constructed by using the literature analysis method and Delphi method,AHP is used to determine the index weight of marine ecological disaster emergency response capability,and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the marine ecological disaster emergency response capability.According to the evaluation method of the median of the emergency capacity rating table,the emergency capacity of Qingdao for major events of green tide disaster in 2008 was 5.52,which was at the general level.In 2012,the emergency response capacity of Shenzhen Nan’ao Sea red tide disaster was 4.8,and the emergency response capacity was at a weak level.In 2011,the emergency response capacity of major events of Bohai ConocoPhillips oil spill disaster was 3.37,and the emergency response capacity was at a weak level.The construction of China’s marine ecological disaster emergency response capacity should continuously improve the marine ecological disaster emergency legal system,reasonably plan the setting of marine ecological disaster emergency response agencies,further streamline the emergency mechanism of marine ecological disaster events,gradually improve the marine ecological disaster emergency response plan system,and enhance the awareness of emergency response subjects to marine ecological disaster events.

关 键 词：海洋生态灾害重大事件 应急能力 灾害预防 模糊评价方法 层次分析法 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]