基于组合赋权与灰云模型的综合能源系统需求响应效益评价  

Demand Response Benefit Evaluation of Integrated Energy System Based on Combination Weighting and Gray Cloud Model

作　　者：盛四清[1] 张佳欣 李然[1] SHENG Siqing;ZHANG Jiaxin;LI Ran(School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,0x09China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,河北保定071003

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期41-52,I0008,I0009,共14页Journal of North China Electric Power University：Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：考虑到当前综合能源系统研究缺乏完善的需求响应量化评估方案,难以在优化运行层面综合评估需求响应效益这一问题,提出了一种基于改进AHP群决策—CRITIC组合赋权与灰云模型的综合能源系统需求响应效益评价方法。首先,从综合能效性、社会经济性和需求侧互动性三个维度构建了需求响应效益评价指标体系。其次,采用一致性和权重拟合性更优的指数标度法构造判断矩阵,降低赋值误差,并通过AHP群决策法确定主观权重,从而削弱主观极值偏差对权重的影响;在由CRITIC法确定客观权重后,基于最小欧氏距离建立组合权重模型,并通过非线性规划求取最优组合权重;针对评价等级信息的模糊性与隶属等级的随机性,采用正态灰云白化权模型确定指标分类等级与场景评分。最后,以北方某综合能源系统为例,根据用户参与需求响应方式设置了4种运行场景,分析了不同需求响应对系统运行的影响与作用,算例结果表明所提指标体系与评价方法科学有效。Considering that the current research on integrated energy system lacks an all-round demand response quantitative evaluation scheme,which makes it difficult to comprehensively evaluate the demand response benefit at the optimal operation level,we proposed a comprehensive evaluation method of demand response benefit based on improved AHP group decision making-CRITIC combination weighting and gray cloud model.Firstly,we constructed a demand response benefit evaluation index system from three dimensions:comprehensive energy efficiency,socio-economy and demand-side interaction.Secondly,we used the exponential scaling with better consistency and weight fitting to construct the judgment matrix to reduce assignment error.We determined the subjective weights by AHP group decision-making method,so as to weaken the influence of deviation from subjective extreme values on weight.After objective weight was determined by CRITIC method,the combination weight model based on minimum Euclidean distance was proposed,and optimal combination weight was obtained by nonlinear programming.In view of the fuzziness of evaluation grade information as well as randomness of membership grade,the normal gray cloud whitening-weight model was used to determine indicator classification grade and scenario score.Finally,taking an integrated energy system in north China for example,four operation scenarios were set up according to the way users participate in demand response,and we analyzed the effect of various demand responses on system operation.The result shows that the proposed index system and evaluation method are scientific and effective.

关 键 词：综合能源系统 需求侧响应 综合评价 AHP群决策法 CRITIC法 最小欧式距离 正态灰云白化权模型 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]