适应客流波动的高铁运力动态调整策略与实践  

Dynamic High Speed Railway Transport Capacity Adjustment Strategy and Practices Coping with Passenger Flow Fluctuation

作　　者：高瀚 单仕平 杨阳 张琦[1] GAO Han;SHAN Shiping;YANG Yang;ZHANG Qi(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Passenger Transport Department,China Railway Shanghai Group Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200071,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]中国铁路上海局集团有限公司客运部,上海200071

出　　处：《中国铁路》2024年第3期96-104,共9页China Railway

基　　金：中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划项目(N2021X028);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2022JBMC058)。

摘　　要：高速铁路网的拓展和动车组运载工具数量的增加,使我国高铁客流呈现愈加复杂的变化规律。为了灵活、快速、精准地响应不同时期动态变化的客流需求,基于现阶段运力配置模式,首先揭示平峰时期以及包含季节性假期和国家法定节假日的高峰时期客流波动规律;其次剖析客运生产环节中涉及运力调整的原则、流程、资源和措施;最后根据不同时期、不同场景的客流波动规律,针对性地提出可适应平峰时期客流需求的“三批次”运力动态调整策略与高峰时期的“梯次投放”运力动态调整策略。该高铁运力动态调整策略,可满足市场化背景下客流需求的波动性与复杂性,为进一步完善复合场景下铁路运力精准配置策略提供参考。The expansion of the high speed railway(HSR)network and the rise in the quantity of Electric Multiple Unit(EMU)vehicles have led to the transformation of China’s HSR passenger flow into an increasingly complex pattern of changes.To flexibly,promptly,and accurately address varying passenger flow demands at different periods,based on the current approach of transport capacity allocation,an study was conducted to reveal the patterns of passenger flow fluctuations during off-peak and peak periods,encompassing seasonal and national statutory holidays.Subsequently,the principles,processes,resources,and measures pertaining to transport capacity adjustments across passenger transport were analyzed.Finally,based on the patterns of passenger flow fluctuations in various scenarios and periods,a dynamic adjustment strategy was proposed.This strategy includes“three-batch”capacity adjustment to meet passenger flow demands in the off-peak period and“cascade release”capacity adjustment in the peak period.The strategy for dynamic adjustment of HSR transport capacity can meet the fluctuating and complex passenger flow demands in the context of marketization,providing a reference for further improving the strategy for precise allocation of railway transport capacity in composite scenarios.

关 键 词：高速铁路 运力配置 需求波动 客流规律 动态调整 

分 类 号：U238[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] U292.8