Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast  

作　　者：K.K.Hon Robert Ballard Eric Blake Steph Bond Robb Gile Daniel Halperin Charles Helms Hoang Lam Xinyan Lyu Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma Akira Shimokobe Ralf Toumi Seonghee Won 

机构地区：[1]Hong Kong Observatory,Hong Kong,China [2]Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Honolulu,Honolulu,USA [3]National Hurricane Center,Miami FL,USA [4]Bureau of Meteorology,Melbourne,Australia [5]Philippine Atmospheric,Geophysical,and Astronomical Services Administration,Department of Science and Technology,Quezon City,Philippines [6]Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,USA [7]National Aeronautics and Space Administration,Maryland,USA [8]Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration,Hanoi,Viet Nam [9]China Meteorological Administration,Beijing,China [10]Regional Specialized Meteorological Center New Delhi,New Delhi,India [11]Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo-Typhoon Centre,Tokyo,Japan [12]Department of Physics,Imperial College London,UK [13]Korea Meteorological Administration,Seoul,Republic of Korea

出　　处：《Tropical Cyclone Research and Review》2023年第4期323-340,共18页热带气旋研究与评论（英文版）

摘　　要：Tropical cyclone(TC)genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research community.This report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both hemispheres.Since IWTC-9,we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers,typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis,covering time periods of couple of days to weeks ahead.The prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis prediction.While operational practice might differ across agencies,verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability,which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.

关 键 词：CYCLOGENESIS Tropical cyclone genesis ENSEMBLE Prediction OPERATIONAL Forecasting Probabilistic Verification Survey Global 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]