A generalized ODE susceptible-infectious-susceptible compartmental model with potentially periodic behavior  

作　　者：Scott Greenhalgh Anna Dumas 

机构地区：[1]Department of Mathematics,Siena College,515 Loudon Road,Loudonville,NY,12211,USA

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2023年第4期1190-1202,共13页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：supported by the National Science Foundation Grant DMS-2052592.

摘　　要：Differential equation compartmental models are crucial tools for forecasting and analyzing disease trajectories.Among these models,those dealing with only susceptible and infectious individuals are particularly useful as they offer closed-form expressions for solutions,namely the logistic equation.However,the logistic equation has limited ability to describe disease trajectories since its solutions must converge monotonically to either the diseasefree or endemic equilibrium,depending on the parameters.Unfortunately,many diseases exhibit periodic cycles,and thus,do not converge to equilibria.To address this limitation,we developed a generalized susceptible-infectious-susceptible compartmental model capable of accurately incorporating the duration of infection distribution and describing both periodic and non-periodic disease trajectories.We characterized how our model's parameters influence its behavior and applied the model to predict gonorrhea incidence in the US,using Akaike Information Criteria to inform on its merit relative to the traditional SIS model.The significance of our work lies in providing a novel susceptible-infectedsusceptible model whose solutions can have closed-form expressions that may be periodic or non-periodic depending on the parameterization.Our work thus provides disease modelers with a straightforward way to investigate the potential periodic behavior of many diseases and thereby may aid ongoing efforts to prevent recurrent outbreaks.

关 键 词：Infectious period Duration of infection GONORRHEA Integral equations Differential equations 

分 类 号：R184[医药卫生—流行病学]