基于GM(1,1)模型的甘肃省冷链物流需求预测研究  

Research on Cold Chain Logistics Demand Prediction inGansu Province Based on GM (1,1) Model

作　　者：王艳丽 WANG Yan-li(Lanzhou Technology and Business College,Lanzhou 730101,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州工商学院,甘肃兰州730101

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2024年第3期1-3,共3页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：甘肃省高校区域循环经济重点实验室开放基金课题(QXKJ2022-005)。

摘　　要：随着居民对生鲜农产品质量要求的提升,冷链物流行业也亟需朝着高标准、严要求的方向进一步发展。因此,对生鲜农产品冷链物流需求进行精准预测也具有了更加重要的现实意义。将人均生鲜农产品消费量与甘肃省常住居民数的乘积作为甘肃省冷链物流需求量,利用GM(1,1)模型对甘肃省2012-2031年冷链物流需求量进行预测,并通过发展系数检验、残差检验、后验差检验,验证了模型有较高的预测精度,并适用于中长期预测,可以有效预测甘肃省冷链物流需求量的发展趋势,能够为后续甘肃省冷链物流设施规划、冷库建设、运输设备配备提供参考依据。With the improvement demand from residents for the quality of fresh agricultural products,the cold chain logistics industry urgently needs to further develop towards high standards and strict requirements.Therefore,accurate prediction of cold chain logistics demand for fresh agricultural products has become more important in practical significance.The product of per capita consumption of fresh agricultural products and the number of permanent residents in Gansu Province was taken as the demand for cold chain logistics in Gansu Province.The GM(1,1)model was used to forecast the demand for cold chain logistics in Gansu Province from 2012 to 2031.Through development coefficient test,residual test and posterior error test,the model was verified to have high prediction accuracy and was suitable for medium and long-term prediction.It can effectively predict the development trend of cold chain logistics demand in Gansu Province and provide reference basis for subsequent planning of cold chain logistics facilities,cold storage construction,and transportation equipment configuration in Gansu Province.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 冷链物流需求 甘肃省 

分 类 号：F259.27[经济管理—国民经济]