状态跃迁下中国经济增长的复杂动力学分析  

Analysis of the Complex Dynamics of China’s Economic Growth under State Transition

作　　者：方毅[1] 高丽媛[2] 张屹山[1] Fang Yi;Gao Liyuan;Zhang Yishan

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,长春130012 [2]吉林大学数学学院,长春130012

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2024年第3期87-104,204,205,共20页Social Sciences in China

摘　　要：在状态跃迁视域下,建立经济增长非均衡分析框架,研究经济在不同增长路径跳跃的复杂动力学特征以及政府的影响,可以发现:在满足初始成本和动态成本的条件下,政府推动可实现状态跃迁,而且存在政府与市场的动态协同机制;潜在均衡的吸引作用来自市场机制,而潜在均衡动态变动的吸引作用来自政府。政府与市场的动态协同机制可实现状态跃迁,而且在整个状态跃迁过程中,人均经济增长率持续高增长,使得政府的短期行为与长期目标兼容,实现增长速度与发展质量相统一。当前以长期发展政策破解短期问题,可能使经济企稳后迅速转入增长路径跃迁,这对于中国经济长期持续发展具有重要意义。From the perspective of state transition,weestablished a non-equilibrium analysis framework for economic growth to study the complex dynamics of economic jumps between different growth paths and the influence of the government.We find that under the conditions of initial and dynamic costs,government promotion can achieve state transition,and there exists a dynamic synergy mechanism between the government and the market.The attraction of potential equilibrium comes from the market mechanism,while the attraction of dynamic changes in potential equilibrium comes from the government.The dynamic synergy mechanism between the government and the market can achieve state transition,and throughout the entire state transition process,the per capita economic growth rate maintains high growth,allowing the government's short-term behavior to be compatible with long-term goals and achieving unity between speed of growth and development quality.Currently,solving short-term problems with long-term development policies may enable the economy to stabilize and then rapidly enter a growth path transition,which is highly significant for the long-term sustainable development of the Chinese economy.

关 键 词：政府推动 状态跃迁 复杂动力学 协同机制 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]