基于科技项目评审专家异质性的共识测度方法  

Consensus Measurement Method Based on Heterogeneity of Scientific and Technological Project Review Experts

作　　者：李山[1,2] 王俊 赵旭东 Li Shan;Wang Jun;Zhao Xudong(School of Economics and Management,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China;Jiangxi Think Tank Data Center,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330013 [2]江西新型智库数据中心,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2024年第3期205-216,共12页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于动态知识覆盖的创新创业团队成员选择机制研究”(71861010);“移动社交网络环境下企业虚拟社区的用户知识贡献行为研究”(71761012);江西省社会科学“十四五”基金项目“智库专家贡献度评价研究”(22WT76)。

摘　　要：提出一种基于科技项目评审数据的专家共识测度方法。此方法针对专家异质性难以测度问题,首先通过历史评审数据确定专家评审偏好,其次利用专家发文量、h指数等指标计算专家权威度,而后利用专家研究方向与评审项目研究内容得到主题覆盖度,三者结合得到专家权重;针对共识度的测算,利用专家权重,通过互反矩阵共识决策模型计算共识方案,再通过排名偏差重叠计算专家方案与共识方案的相似度得到共识度。该专家共识测度方法既结合了专家历史信息和当下信息,又考虑了专家权威度、研究方向等极易导致共识度产生偏差的异质性指标。最后,通过比较分析验证了此方法的有效性与合理性。This paper proposes an expert consensus measurement method based on the review data of scientific and technological projects.Aiming at the problem that expert heterogeneity is difficult to measure,this method first determines the expert review preference through historical review data,secondly uses knowledge such as expert publication volume and h-index to calculate expert authority,and then uses expert research direction and review project research content to obtain topic coverage,and the three combine to obtain expert weight.For the calculation of consensus degree,the consensus scheme is calculated by using the expert weight,and the consensus scheme is calculated by the mutual inverse matrix consensus decision model,and then the similarity between the expert scheme and the consensus scheme is calculated by the overlap of ranking bias to obtain the consensus degree.The expert consensus measurement method proposed in this paper not only combines the historical information of experts and current information,but also considers heterogeneity indicators such as expert authority and research direction,which are easy to lead to consensus bias.Finally,the effectiveness and rationality of the method are verified by comparative analysis.

关 键 词：共识度 专家异质性 科技项目评审 非共识项目 

分 类 号：G301[文化科学] F204[经济管理—国民经济]