我国农村碳排放强度与乡村振兴协同发展分析  

Analysis of the Synergistic Development of Rural Carbon Intensity and Rural Revitalisation in China

作　　者：郭文强[1] 谭乔阳 雷明 许新强[3] Guo Wenqiang;Tan Qiaoyang;Lei Ming(School of Information Management,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China;Guanghua School of Management,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学信息管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [2]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871 [3]不详

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2024年第3期217-226,共10页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：新疆社会科学基金一般项目“新疆脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴衔接模式及实现路径”(21GBL098);新疆高校科研基金重点项目“新疆乡村振兴战略研究”(XJEDU050314C01)。

摘　　要：基于对2010—2020年中国农村碳排放强度与乡村振兴发展水平的测算,探究两者耦合协调度并进行空间自相关分析,借助面板向量自回归(VAR)模型佐证农村碳排放强度与乡村振兴互动效应。研究结果表明:我国农村碳排放强度波动下降,乡村振兴发展水平持续上升,但区域间发展差异性较大;两者耦合协调度稳步提升,从期初的中等协调转为优质协调状态,空间上存在正相关性,主要表现为高-高集聚和低-低集聚两种分布类型,且集聚程度均逐年减弱;农村碳排放强度与乡村振兴存在长期稳定的协整关系,农村碳排放强度与乡村振兴对自身冲击效应较大,而农村碳排放强度对乡村振兴发展的抑制作用强于乡村振兴对农村碳排放强度的促进作用。基于实证分析,建议加强政策制度建设和碳排放监管、实施补贴政策,并促进农业技术创新,以推动农业生产方式向低碳转型,以实现农村碳排放与乡村振兴的协同发展。Based on the measurement of China's rural carbon emission intensity and the development level of rural revitalisation from 2010 to 2020,the study explores the degree of coupling and coordination between the two,conducts spatial autocorrelation analyses,and uses the PVAR model to support the interactive effects of rural carbon emission intensity and rural revitalisation.The results of the study show that:China's rural carbon emission intensity fluctuates down,the development level of rural revitalisation continues to rise,but the inter-regional development is more differentiated;the degree of coordination between the two couplings is steadily increasing,from the medium coordination at the beginning of the period to the high-quality coordination state,with positive spatial correlation,which mainly manifests itself in the distribution of two types of high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration,and the degree of agglomeration is decreasing year by year;the long-term stable covariance exists between the intensity of rural carbon emission and rural revitalisation.There is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between rural carbon emission intensity and rural revitalisation,rural carbon emission intensity and rural revitalisation have a larger impact effect on themselves,and the inhibitory effect of rural carbon emission intensity on the development of rural revitalisation is stronger than the promotional effect of rural revitalisation on rural carbon emission intensity.Based on the empirical analysis,it is recommended to strengthen the construction of the policy system,enhance the regulation of carbon emissions,implement the subsidy policy,and promote the innovation of agricultural technology in order to promote the transformation of agricultural production methods to low-carbon,so as to achieve the synergistic development of rural carbon emissions and rural revitalisation.

关 键 词：农村碳排放 乡村振兴 耦合协调 面板向量自回归(VAR)模型 协同发展 

分 类 号：F322[经济管理—产业经济]