中国收缩型县域土地绿色利用效率的时空演进及收敛特征  

Spatiotemporal evolution and convergence characteristics of land green use efficiency in shrinking counties of China

作　　者：贾文星 张学良[2] 韩慧敏 JIA Wenxing;ZHANG Xueliang;HAN Huimin(Institute of Applied Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200020,China;School of Urban and Regional Sciences,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院应用经济研究所,上海200020 [2]上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院,上海200433

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第2期294-307,共14页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD067);上海市教育委员会2023年度科研创新计划重大项目(2023SKZD14)。

摘　　要：【目的】本文旨在从县域层面评价收缩型区域的土地绿色利用效率,考察县域土地绿色利用效率的动态跃迁及随机收敛特征,为新时期收缩型县域实现高质量发展提供参考。【方法】基于“经济-社会-环境”分析框架构建全局参比下考虑非期望产出的非径向、非角度超效率SBM-DEA模型,测度2011—2020年中国收缩型县域的土地绿色利用效率,运用探索性时空数据分析方法考察县域土地绿色利用效率的时空依赖特性和动态跃迁特征,并基于面板单位根检验方法对县域土地绿色利用效率进行全局性及俱乐部随机收敛检验,尝试对可能存在的收敛子集进行识别。【结果】样本考察期内,过半县域处于收缩状态且呈现连绵化发展趋势,收缩型县域土地绿色利用效率处于低值区间且总体呈现下降态势。县域土地绿色利用效率表现出典型的空间集聚现象,其未来演化发展虽然具备良好的空间整合条件,但短期内向“低低”象限转移的概率更高。收缩程度较高的县域表现出更明显的“路径依赖”和“低值锁定”行为。全国层面和分地区的考察均未发现存在全局性或俱乐部随机收敛趋势,分省层面存在海量的收敛子集。【结论】中国收缩型县域土地绿色利用效率具有较大提升的空间,应充分发挥空间交互影响的作用,推动小尺度、精细化的交流与合作,助力实现人口流失县域人地关系的协调发展。[Objective]The purpose of this study was to evaluate the land green use efficiency of shrinking regions at the county level in China,and to investigate the dynamic leap and stochastic convergence characteristics of county land green use efficiency,so as to provide a reference for shrinking counties to achieve high-quality development in the new period.[Methods]Based on the economic-social-environmental analysis framework,we constructed a non-radial,non-angle superefficiency slacks-based measure-data envelopment analysis(SBM-DEA)model with non-expected outputs under global reference to measure the land green use efficiency of the shrinking counties in China from 2011 to 2020;used the exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis method to examine the spatiotemporal dependent characteristics and dynamic leap characteristics of county land green use efficiency;and based on the panel unit root test method to test the global and club stochastic convergence of county land green use efficiency,in order to identify the possible convergent subsets.[Results]During the study period,more than half of the county-level administrative unit samples were in the population shrinkage state and showed the trend of continuous development,and the land green use efficiency of contraction-type counties was in the low-value range and generally showed a decreasing trend.The land green use efficiency of counties showed a typical spatial agglomeration phenomenon,and although there are good conditions for spatial integration in future evolution,the probability of shifting to the“low-low”quadrant is higher in the short term.Regions with a higher degree of shrinkage showed more obvious path dependence and low-value lock-in behaviors.No global or club stochastic convergence trends were found at the national and sub-regional levels,and a large number of convergent subsets existed at the sub-provincial level.[Conclusion]The potential for enhancing the land green use efficiency of shrinking regions at the county level in China is substantial,indica

关 键 词：收缩型县域 人地关系 土地绿色利用效率 时空跃迁 随机收敛 SBM-DEA 中国 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]