中国分地区人口死因状况及去死因期望寿命分析  

Analysis of mortality status and cause-eliminated life expectancy by region in China

作　　者：陶梦梦 田纬 李坤坤 曹文君 TAO Mengmeng;TIAN Wei;LI Kunkun;CAO Wenjun(Department of Statistics,School of Public Health,Shanxi Medical University,Taiyuan 030001,China;Department of Social Medicine,School of Public Health,Shanxi Medical University,Taiyuan 030001,China;Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine,Changzhi Medical College,Changzhi 046013,China)

机构地区：[1]山西医科大学公共卫生学院统计学教研室,太原030001 [2]山西医科大学公共卫生学院社会医学教研室,太原030001 [3]长治医学院公共卫生与预防医学系,长治046013

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2024年第3期256-261,268,共7页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：山西省卫生健康委科研课题(2023002);山西省教育科学“十四五”规划课题(GH-220226)。

摘　　要：目的了解各地区人口死因现状,研究各疾病死因的变化趋势,为卫生资源合理利用提供可靠依据。方法对比2010、2015、2020年东、中、西部地区死因顺位,编制全死因寿命表以及去死因寿命表。计算死亡率、年龄标化死亡率和减寿率等指标,并采用第七次全国人口普查数据进行标化。结果各地区死亡率呈上升趋势,西部地区年龄标化死亡率最高,各地区期望寿命年均增长0.32、0.34和0.31岁。恶性肿瘤、脑血管病、心脏病、呼吸系统疾病和伤害是各地区死因前5位。恶性肿瘤是东部地区死因首位,而脑血管病是中部地区的死因首位。心脏病寿命损失率在各地区都呈上升趋势,2020年中部地区≥85岁年龄组心脏病寿命损失率已达49.50%;呼吸系统导致的寿命损失率逐年降低,但随年龄的增长呈上升趋势,且对西部地区的寿命影响最大;伤害导致的寿命损失率在≥75岁年龄组呈上升趋势。结论各地区人口期望寿命逐步增加,但心血管病导致的寿命损失率在持续升高,且伤害对老年人群的寿命影响也在不断增加。不同疾病对不同地区寿命影响程度存在差异,应根据不同年龄、地区的老年人制定有针对性地疾病防治策略。Objective To analyze the incidence time trend of chronic kidney disease(CKD)in China from 1990 to 2019,evaluate its age,period and cohort effect,and predict the incidence of chronic kidney disease in China from 2020 to 2034,so as to provide reference for relevant prevention and treatment policies and measures of CKD.Methods Based on the data of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(GBD 2019),the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend change of chronic kidney disease in different genders,and the annual percentage change(APC)and the average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated.With the help of age-period-cohort model,the influence of age,period and cohort factors on the incidence of CKD in different sexes was analyzed.Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the incidence and number of CKD in different gender from 2020 to 2034.Results From 1990 to 2019,the standardized incidence rate of CKD in the entire population,as well as among men and women in China,demonstrated an overall upward trajectory(AAPC=0.30%,0.30%,0.29%,all P<0.001).Notably,there was an irregular variation observed in women during the years 1993-1996(APC=-0.54%,P=0.073),with females exhibiting a higher incidence rate than males.However,the incidence rate in males has escalated at a significantly higher pace than that in females in recent years.The fluctuations in chronic kidney disease incidence in China were influenced by age,period,and cohort factors(all P<0.001).The overall risk of CKD increased with age,experiencing a notable rise after the age of 60.Furthermore,the incidence continued to rise post-1995,associated with birth cohorts before 2005,and demonstrated a decline after 2005.Projections for the period from 2020 to 2034 anticipate an upward trend in the standardized incidence rate and the number of cases of chronic kidney disease in China,with a more pronounced increase among males compared to females.Conclusions From 1990 to 2019,the incidence rate and the number of cases of CKD in China demonstr

关 键 词：死亡率 死因顺位 期望寿命 趋势 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]