机关事业单位养老保险改革的福利效应:不确定性与消费的视角  

Welfare Effects of Endowment Insurance Reform for the Staff of Government Organs and Public Institutions:An Uncertainty and Consumption Perspective

作　　者：田文文 岳阳 TIAN Wenwen;YUE Yang(School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;School of Economics,Xiamen University)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院,102488 [2]厦门大学经济学院经济研究所、王亚南经济研究院,361005

出　　处：《经济研究》2024年第2期171-189,共19页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72274107,72173106);国家自然科学基金重点项目(72133004)的资助。

摘　　要：本文聚焦机关事业单位职工这一长期被经济学界忽略群体的独特特征,从收入不确定性视角出发,研究机关事业单位养老保险改革对过渡期内外中人消费影响的差异。本文首先回顾了机关事业单位养老保险制度历史变迁,着重分析2015年的改革。本文构建理论模型,分析改革后养老金待遇的平均值和不确定性对职工储蓄和消费的影响。结果表明,未来较高的待遇水平会降低储蓄,较高的不确定性水平则会增加储蓄。接着,本文使用中国家庭收入调查数据,对理论预期进行验证。实证结果表明,机关事业单位养老保险改革使得过渡期外中人的消费降低。在进行了稳健性检验和平行趋势检验并排除其他可能性解释后,该结果依然成立。进一步分析表明,尽管机关事业单位养老保险改革属于增量改革,但它并未完全抵消由于收入不确定性增加带来的消费抑制效应。本文的结论说明,对于机关事业单位职工来说,即使收入呈现增加趋势,但不确定性的增加会明显抑制消费。Pension system arrangements affect people’s participation decisions,which in turn affect their behaviors of consumption,savings,labor supply,and asset allocation decisions.This paper delves into the welfare effects of the endowment insurance reform for the staff of government organs and public institutions,with a particular focus on the influence of uncertainties on consumption.Initially,this paper outlines the evolution of the endowment insurance reform for the staff of government organs and public institutions.After 1991,the endowment insurance for enterprise employees and that for the staff of government organs and public institutions were operated separately,but they were integrated in 2015 in an effort to promote fairness.The reform employs differentiated pension benefit calculation methods for senior staff(retirees before October 1,2014),staff in the transition period(employees who started work before October 2014),and new staff(employees who started work after October 2014).According to the policy,the pension benefit calculation methods are easier for the senior staff and new staff.For staff in the transition period,a 10-year transition period was established.During this period,they can enjoy higher pension benefits by comparing the calculation methods for senior staff and new staff.The staff beyond the 10-year transition period is subject to the calculation method applicable to new staff.The calculation method applicable to senior staff is related to basic salary and years of contributions,but that to new staff incorporates more factors.As a consequence,the staff beyond the 10-year transition period faces more uncertainties.The paper then constructs a life-cycle model to investigate the relationship between pension benefits as well as uncertainties and households’saving and consumption behaviors.The model suggests that increased uncertainties lead to decreased consumption and increased savings.In the empirical analysis,difference-in-differences and difference-in-difference-in-differences models are us

关 键 词：养老保险改革 机关事业单位职工 消费 不确定性 

分 类 号：D630[政治法律—政治学] F842.67[政治法律—中外政治制度]