海南省海洋生态环境与经济社会发展综合评价及趋势研究  

Study on the Comprehensive Assessment and Trend of Marine Ecological Environment and Socio-economic Development in Hainan Province

作　　者：符诗雨 安明梅 翁洁畅 刘宏霞 韩金妮 FU Shi-yu;AN Ming-mei;WENG Jie-chang;LIU Hong-xia;HAN Jin-ni(Hainan Provincial Ecological and Environmental Monitoring Centre,Haikou Hainan 571126,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省生态环境监测中心,海南海口571126

出　　处：《环境科学导刊》2024年第2期62-67,共6页Environmental Science Survey

摘　　要：基于高质量发展需求构建的海洋生态环境与经济社会发展综合评价体系分析结果表明,2011—2020年,海南省海洋生态-经济-社会系统综合发展状态有向好趋势,逐步稳定在良好状态,但海洋生态子系统发展的速度尚未跟上海洋经济和海洋社会子系统。基于灰色Verhulst模型的预测结果表明,2021—2025年,海南省海洋海洋生态-经济-社会系统综合发展状态均处于良好,但建设自由贸易港也给海洋生态环境带来了新的压力和风险,导致年平均增长率有所回落。Based on the high quality development demand,the development comprehensive assessment system of marine ecological environment and socio-economic development was built.The analysis results showed that the marine ecological-economic-social system development status in Hainan province had a positive trend and gradually stabilized at a fine level from 2011 to 2020.But the development speed of the Marine ecologic subsystem had not caught up with the marine economic subsystem and the marine social subsystem.The prediction results based on the grey Verhulst model showed that the marine ecological-economic-social system development status in Hainan Province would be in a fine level from 2021 to 2025.But the construction of Hainan free trade port would bring new pressure and risks to the marine ecological environment.As a result,the annual average growth rate would fall.

关 键 词：海洋生态环境 经济社会发展 综合评价 灰色VERHULST模型 海南省 

分 类 号：X82[环境科学与工程—环境工程]