基于Nerlove模型的棉花种植供给反应分析-以新疆为例  

Analysis of the Supply Response of Cotton Cultivation Based on Nerlove Model——Taking Xinjiang as an Example

作　　者：高花彦 冯啸林 徐胜静 王鹏鹏 卢泉[1] GAO Hua-yan;FENG Xiao-lin;XU Sheng-jing;WANG Peng-peng;LU Quan(College of Economics and Management,Tarim University,Alar,Xinjiang 843300,China;College of Economics,Xinjiang University of Science&Technology,Korla,Xinjiang 841000,China;School of Information Science and Engineering,Xinjiang University of Science&Technology,Korla,Xinjiang 841000,China)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300 [2]新疆科技学院经济学院,新疆库尔勒841000 [3]新疆科技学院信息科学与工程学院,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《台湾农业探索》2023年第5期68-73,共6页Taiwan Agricultural Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(19BJY139);首批国家级新文科建设与实践项目(2021090093);塔里木大学研究生创新项目(TDGRI202270)。

摘　　要：【目的/意义】新疆棉区是中国最大的优质棉生产基地,通过剖析新疆棉花供给缺乏弹性的原因,以期为优化新疆棉花产业布局,调整产业结构以及保障棉花产业安全稳定发展提供参考。【方法/过程】为甄别影响新疆棉花供给的主要因素,基于1986—2020年新疆棉花种植面积和价格的时间序列数据,引入目标价格补贴政策,运用Nerlove模型对新疆棉花供给反应进行测度。【结果/结论】研究发现:新疆棉花的短期价格供给弹性值为0.150,长期供给弹性值为0.393;滞后1期棉花种植面积和棉价指数、目标价格补贴政策对当期棉花种植面积具有显著的正向影响。对此,提出了完善棉花市场体系、调整补贴标准、优化棉花质量、加快技术投入推广等对策建议。【Objective/Meaning】The cotton area in Xinjiang is the largest production base of high-quality cotton in China.By analyzing the reasons for the lack of elasticity of cotton supply in Xinjiang,it was expected to provide reference for optimizing the layout of cotton industry in Xinjiang,adjusting the industrial structure and ensuring the safe and stable development of cotton industry.【Methods/Procedures】In order to screen the main factors affecting the cotton supply in Xinjiang,the Nerlove model is used to measure the supply response of Xinjiang cotton based on the time series data of cotton planting area and price in Xinjiang from 1986 to 2020,the target price subsidy policy was introduced,and the Nerlove model was used to measure the cotton supply response in Xinjiang.【 Results/Conclusions】 The study found that:the short-term price supply elasticity value of cotton in Xinjiang was 0.150,while the long-term supply elasticity value was 0.393.The lagged 1-period cotton planting area,cotton price index and target price subsidy policy had significant positive effects on the cotton planting area in the current period.Hereby,the countermeasures were put forward,such as improving the market system of cotton,adjusting the subsidy standard,optimizing the quality of cotton,and accelerating the technology investment and promotion,etc.

关 键 词：新疆棉花 种植结构 供给反应 NERLOVE模型 

分 类 号：F326.12[经济管理—产业经济]