远东燃料动力综合体产业结构偏离度的空间分析  

Structural Shifts in the Fuel and Energy Sectors of the Far East:A Spatial Analysis

作　　者：  张加力(译) 唐娜(校) N.G.Dzhurka;O.V.Dyomina;ZHANG Jiali;TANG Na

机构地区：[1]俄罗斯科学院远东分院经济研究所 [2]俄罗斯科学院经济研究所 [3]黑龙江省社会科学院研究生学院 [4]江苏省连云港市金辰实业有限公司

出　　处：《西伯利亚研究》2024年第1期5-25,119,共22页Siberian Studies

摘　　要：俄罗斯东向能源政策对远东燃料动力综合体产业投资产生冲击效应,燃料动力综合体为增加向亚太地区国家的燃料动力资源出口实施了一系列投资项目。2012—2019年,远东燃料动力资源的产业结构出现偏离度。相关计算采用产业指数增长率结构分解法(偏离—比重分析法)的传统模型和空间模型。从国家、宏观区域(区域间)、地区等不同空间层面,对远东燃料动力综合体年均就业人数和总增加值增长率进行结构分解,并得出以下结论:在俄罗斯东向能源政策框架下燃料动力综合体采掘业的发展获得强大推动力,其竞争力分量为正值,弥补了导致全俄经济失稳的负面冲击影响;影响燃料动力综合体采掘业经济发展态势的重要因素在于区域间竞争成败,而非空间外部性;区别于煤炭产业,油气产业具备形成空间外部性的潜力;采掘业的发展领先于其他产业,仍是地区经济飞地。原文发表于俄罗斯《空间经济》杂志2022年第4期((1)),经作者同意以中文刊发于《西伯利亚研究》。The Eastern vector of Russia’s energy policy has the effects of the investment shock on the fuel and energy power complex industry of the Far East,which has implemented a series of investment projects in order to in⁃crease export supplies of fuel and energy resources to the Asia-Pacific coun⁃tries.There were the shifts in the structure of fuel and energy resources pro⁃duction in the region over the period from 2012 to 2019.In calculations,we use the classical and spatial versions of the method of structural decomposition of the growth rates of the sectoral indicators(shift-share analysis).On the basis of structural decomposition of the changes on the average annual number of employees and the GVA of the fuel and energy complex of the Far East at different spatial levels(national,macroregional(interregional)and regional)we draw the following conclusions:a strong impulse for development in the framework of the Eastern vector of Russia’s energy policy was given to extrac⁃tive industries,and their competitive effects were positive and overrode the negative shocks,which were destabilizing the national economy;an important factor in the economic dynamics of the extractive industries of the fuel and en⁃ergy complex were gains/losses in inter-regional competition,but not spatial externalities;in the oil and gas industry,unlike in the coal industry,there is potential for formation of spatial externalities;developing faster than others,extractive industries remain enclaves in regional economies.The original arti⁃cle was published in the Russian journal Spatial Economics:Economics and Sociology,No.4,2022.With the consent of the author,it is published in Si⁃berian Studies in Chinese.

关 键 词：燃料动力综合体 俄东向能源政策 投资项目 结构偏离度分析 区域间协作 地方竞争力 空间外部性 远东 

分 类 号：F151.2[经济管理—世界经济]