基于PAF和ICLR模型的大气多环芳烃人体暴露肺癌风险评价:以合肥市为例  

Lung cancer risk assessment of the exposure to atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons based on population attributable fraction and incremental lifetime cancer risk models:A case study in Hefei

作　　者：夏琳琳 王建兵 黄颖珊 王儒威 XIA Linlin;WANG Jianbing;HUANG Yingshan;WANG Ruwei(School of Ecological Environment and Resources,Guangdong University of Technology,State Key Laboratory for Urban Environmental Safety and Green Development of Dawan District,Ministry of Education,Guangzhou,510006,China;State Key Laboratory of Soil Environment and Pollution Remediation,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing Institute of Soil Research,Nanjing,210008,China;School of Environment,Jinan University,Guangzhou,511443,China)

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学生态环境与资源学院,大湾区城市环境安全与绿色发展教育部重点实验室,广州510006 [2]中国科学院土壤环境与污染修复重点实验室,南京土壤研究所,南京210008 [3]暨南大学环境学院,广州511443

出　　处：《环境化学》2024年第3期856-863,共8页Environmental Chemistry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41807492,41773099);广州市科技计划项目(202201010730)资助。

摘　　要：城市有机污染物排放引起的致癌风险是当前人群健康研究关注热点.本研究以安徽省会合肥市为案例,以多环芳烃(PAHs)为研究对象,结合实地采样分析以及超额终生致癌风险模型(ILCR)和人群归因模型(PAF)对城市不同区域、季节、人群的致癌风险进行评估,并采用蒙特卡洛模型解析不同模型的致癌风险评估差异.研究表明,合肥市大气PAHs暴露所引起的额外肺癌每百万人为9.47,ILCR与PAF模型模拟结果具有较好的一致性,而PAF模型的参数敏感性较高.合肥城市PAHs的致癌风险的空间分布、季节变化以及人群分布都存在显著的空间异质性:城市中心道路交通高排放区和郊区农业活动强度大区域的致癌风险较高;秋冬PAHs的浓度水平较高导致较高致癌风险;室外活动频繁的成年人致癌风险高,儿童的风险易感性高.因此,城市人群健康风险综合管控需要系统考虑不同污染排放源的分布差异.The cancer risk caused by exposure to atmospheric organic pollutants in cities has raised increasing global concern.However,the spatial characteristics of the cancer risk in cities remain largely unknown because there are large differences in the distribution of pollution source and population density.In this study,we analyzed the 16 U.S.EPA priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs)in the atmosphere in Hefei,the capital city of Anhui province,over one year period.We also estimated the lung cancer risk caused by exposure to atmospheric PAHs based on the population attributable fraction(PAF)and incremental lifetime cancer risk(ILCR)models.Results indicated that the average excess inhalation risk were 9.47 cancer cases per million people.The overall PAF value was 0.78‰,coinciding well with the ILCR value.The cancer risk at urban sites were noticeably higher than those at tourist area site and rural site.The cancer risk was higher in winter and autumn than those in summer and spring.Adults had higher risk of lung cancer than children and adolescents.

关 键 词：多环芳烃(PAHs) 人群归因模型 超额终生致癌风险 暴露肺癌风险 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X820.4