一种飞机空中积冰潜势诊断指数与检验评估  

An Aircraft Icing Potential Algorithm and Its Evaluation

作　　者：周琦浩 施钰鲲 王子祎 孙俊颖 蒋瑜 ZHOU Qihao;SHI Yukun;WANG Ziyi;SUN Junying;JIANG Yu(COMAC Flight Test Center,Shanghai 201324)

机构地区：[1]中国商用飞机有限责任公司民用飞机试飞中心,上海201324

出　　处：《气象科技》2024年第1期132-140,共9页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：工业和信息化部民机适航性验证相关研究资助。

摘　　要：飞机积冰是影响飞行安全的重要危险天气,准确的积冰诊断对民航运行与安全具有重大意义,特别是对国产大飞机适航取证具有重要作用。本文参考改进的CIP(Current Icing Potential)指数,使用垂直速度和云中液态水含量对积冰潜势诊断指数进行优化得到SCIP(Simplified Current Icing Potential)指数,该指数直接基于大气层结资料给出较为准确地飞机积冰潜势,具有命中率高、实用性强的特点。用2021年2月28日至12月31日民航航空器报告对原CIP指数和SCIP指数进行对比验证评估,发现相比于原CIP指数,SCIP指数具有更优异的ROC曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve)和TSS评分(True Skill Score)。但是对于不同程度的积冰,原CIP指数和SCIP指数均表现出较一致诊断效果,表明SCIP指数对诊断飞机积冰潜势具有重要作用,但无法判断积冰强度。根据2020年3月16日陕西区域飞机结冰个例验证表明增加垂直速度和云中液态水含量的影响对飞机积冰的描述更加细致,对提升积冰潜势诊断效果具有重要意义。Aircraft icing is an important and dangerous weather condition that affects flight safety.Accurate diagnosis of aircraft icing is of great significance to the operation and safety of civil aviation,especially with the advancement of airworthiness certification of domestic large aircraft;the diagnosis of aircraft icing potential attracts the attention of many departments such as civil aviation and meteorology.In this paper,referring to the improved CIP(Current Icing Potential)index,the fuzzy logic method is used to increase the correlation between the vertical velocity and the liquid water content in the cloud affecting aircraft icing,and optimize the aircraft icing potential equation to obtain the SCIP(Simplified Current Icing Potential)index.The index gives a relatively accurate aircraft icing potential directly based on atmospheric layer data and has the characteristics of a high hit rate and strong practicability in the diagnosis of aircraft icing.The aircraft icing potential diagnostic indexes are compared and validated,using the China Civil Aviation Aircraft reports from 28 February 2021 to 31 December 2021.The icing potential index is applied to reanalysis data to simulate historical icing events.Compared with the improved CIP index,the SCIP index shows better Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(ROC)and True Skill Score(TSS).The results also show that increasing vertical velocity and cloud liquid water content in the aircraft ice accumulation potential diagnosis algorithm are crucial to avoid the warning of air alarms.However,for different degrees of ice accumulation,the improved CIP index and SCIP index show a consistent diagnostic effect,indicating that the SCIP index plays an important role in the diagnosis of aircraft ice accumulation potential but cannot judge the ice accumulation intensity.In order to further evaluate the influence of increasing vertical velocity and cloud liquid water content in the aircraft ice accumulation potential index,reanalysis data are used to calculate the aircraft ice a

关 键 词：飞机积冰 模糊逻辑 积冰潜势诊断 

分 类 号：P426.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] V321.2[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]