中国产业发展对周期理论的证伪与创新  

The Refutation and Innovation of Cycle Theory in China’s Industrial Development

作　　者：赵儒煜 杨杨[3] ZHAO Ru-yu;YANG Yang(Regional Development and Common Prosperity Research Institute,Ningbo University of Technology,Ningbo,315211;Northeast Asian Studies College,Jilin University,Changchun,130015;School of Economics and Management,Ningbo University of Technology,Ningbo,315211)

机构地区：[1]宁波工程学院区域发展与共同富裕研究院 [2]吉林大学东北亚学院 [3]宁波工程学院经济与管理学院

出　　处：《云南社会科学》2024年第2期100-108,共9页Social Sciences in Yunnan

摘　　要：改革开放以来,中国经济在1978—2008年间的快速、稳定、超长期的经济增长和2008年以来在新产业革命的背景下出现下行趋势的中期性波动,对传统产业周期理论形成了方法论意义上的证伪。实践证明,中国改革开放后到2008年间超长周期形成的根本原因与2008年后新产业革命背景下经济下行的中期性波动的内在机理上,都与消费结构升级意义上的需求增量紧密相关。基于上述分析和对传统周期理论及价格机制的反思,重新构建了关于经济周期的理论逻辑:经济周期形成的根本原因是需求方的功能预期(消费结构升级)与供给方科技创新之间的矛盾。其中,需求是具有根本意义的内生变量,科技创新的内生性只是附着于需求的内生性才存在的;储蓄率与投资率在经济增长中的对应关系,投资的乘数效果、消费的加速原理等,都是新的需求功能预期实现并拉动经济的具体表现形式;新需求功能预期不断得到科技创新的回应,是实现超长周期经济增长的关键。Since the reform and opening-up,China’s rapid,stable,and long-term economic growth from 1978 to 2008 and the mid-term fluctuations in the context of the new industrial revolution since 2008,have methodologically refuted traditional industrial cycle theories.Practice has proven that the fundamental reasons for the formation of ultra-long-term cycles from the reform and opening-up period to 2008,and the intrinsic mechanism of mid-term economic downturns under the backdrop of the new industrial revolution since 2008,are closely related to the upgrading of consumption structure and the corresponding increase in demand.Based on the above analysis and reflections on traditional cycle theories and price mechanisms,a new theoretical logic about economic cycles is reconstructed:the fundamental cause for the formation of economic cycles lies in the contradiction between the functional expectations of demand(consumption structure upgrading)and technological innovation on the supply side.Among them,demand is a fundamentally endogenous variable,and the endogeneity of technological innovation exists only as an attachment to the endogeneity of demand.The relationship between savings rate and investment rate in economic growth,the multiplier effect of investment,the acceleration principle of consumption,etc.,are all specific manifestations of the realization of new demand functional expectations driving the economy.The continual response of technological innovation to new demand functional expectations is the key to achieving ultra-long-term economic growth.

关 键 词：中国产业发展 周期理论 预期机制 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F062.9